Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Bowlan, Jonathan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
16.7% to 29.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
80
Arsenal5 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.00
ERA current pace3.35
ERA rolling p503.67
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.42 3.01 3.67 4.33 4.92
FIP
2.35 2.99 3.70 4.42 5.06
K%
23.2% 24.9% 26.8% 28.7% 30.5%
BB%
6.1% 6.9% 7.9% 8.9% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.06
89
ERA3.35
74
BB%6.9%
80 +30 vs proj
K%31.2%
96 +39 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.262
93 +52 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.7%
45
Fastball velo97.1
88
Hard-hit allowed37.1%
61
Whiff%29.5%
91
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+111
97
Mithrandir Stuff+107
92
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Sinker Stuff+110
96
Slider Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bowlan, Jonathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.262 2026-09-13: 0.2612026-09-14: 0.2612026-09-18: 0.2622026-09-19: 0.2622026-09-20: 0.2622026-09-21: 0.2622026-09-22: 0.2622026-09-23: 0.2622026-09-24: 0.2622026-09-25: 0.2622026-09-26: 0.2622026-09-27: 0.262 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bowlan, Jonathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bowlan, Jonathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.6%Slider: 18.2%Changeup: 13.7%Sinker: 11.3%Sweeper: 8.4%Curveball: 0.9% FF48% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 18%CH 14%SI 11%ST 8%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bowlan, Jonathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mphSlider: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.5 mphCH90 mphSinker: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.1 mphSI97 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 82.3 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.7% 321 111 qualified
SL 26.1% 172 98 limited sample
SI 12.1% 80 110 limited sample
CH 11.8% 78 100 limited sample
CB 1.2% 8 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.287 vs 0.260 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Slider 31%, Sinker 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.10
K% Δ+0.083
Sample58.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.0----
Batters Faced260----
K%22.8%16.7% to 29.1%+/- 6.2%
BB%8.9%6.3% to 12.4%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%28.3%22.9% to 33.3%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.520.74 to 2.65+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.3200.250 to 0.354+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.5% to 12.1%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.452.44 to 5.97+/- 1.77
FIP4.282.99 to 6.82+/- 1.92
WHIP1.2391.052 to 1.634+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

97 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%19.5%
BB%9.6%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

132 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%20.1%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.7%