Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Keller, Brad

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
18.5% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal5 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.69
ERA current pace4.02
ERA rolling p503.81
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.61 3.18 3.81 4.45 5.02
FIP
2.83 3.40 4.04 4.67 5.24
K%
19.2% 21.0% 22.9% 24.8% 26.6%
BB%
6.7% 7.9% 9.2% 10.4% 11.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
32
ERA4.02
50
BB%10.6%
28 -22 vs proj
K%22.7%
52
xwOBA allowed0.284
78 +50 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
80 +41 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
85
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
Whiff%20.7%
32 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+91
4
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Sinker Stuff+101
43
Slider Stuff+106
82
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Keller, Brad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.284 2026-07-06: 0.2862026-07-07: 0.2862026-07-08: 0.2862026-07-09: 0.2862026-07-10: 0.2842026-07-11: 0.2842026-07-12: 0.2842026-07-13: 0.2842026-07-14: 0.2842026-07-15: 0.2842026-07-16: 0.2842026-07-17: 0.284 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Keller, Brad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 42%42%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.4%Slider: 22.2%Sinker: 19.6%Changeup: 13.7%Sweeper: 12.1% FF32% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SL 22%SI 20%CH 14%ST 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mphSlider: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 87.0 mphSL87 mphSinker: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.8 mphCH93 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.7 mphST86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.4% 132 97 limited sample
SL 33.2% 131 106 limited sample
SI 18.7% 74 101 limited sample
CH 14.7% 58 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Slider 18%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.45
K% Δ-0.003
Sample31.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.1----
Batters Faced280----
K%23.0%18.5% to 28.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.6%5.6% to 12.3%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%23.3%19.8% to 28.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.240.75 to 2.09+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3350.270 to 0.342+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.1% to 11.7%+/- 3.3%
ERA3.572.28 to 5.58+/- 1.65
FIP3.882.92 to 6.23+/- 1.65
WHIP1.2411.055 to 1.545+/- 0.245
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1752 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%20.3%
BB%9.8%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

1835 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%21.9%
BB%8.0%
Barrel7.9%