Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Kerkering, Orion

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
19.5% to 35.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.37
ERA current pace2.21
ERA rolling p503.04
Observed weight28%
ERA
1.39 2.17 3.04 3.91 4.70
FIP
2.40 2.88 3.40 3.93 4.40
K%
19.5% 22.3% 25.5% 28.7% 31.6%
BB%
5.6% 7.0% 8.6% 10.2% 11.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.5%
53
Barrel allowed8.3%
42 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed25.0%
98
K%25.5%
72
Whiff%24.9%
64
xwOBA allowed0.240
97 +46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+107
88
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

7 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kerkering, Orion · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-26: 0.2372026-05-28: 0.2342026-05-29: 0.2342026-05-30: 0.2342026-05-31: 0.2342026-06-01: 0.2402026-06-02: 0.240 2026-05-26 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kerkering, Orion · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 59%59%Hard hit allowed: 25%25% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kerkering, Orion · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 44.2%4-Seam Fastball: 29.6%Sinker: 21.3%Split-Finger: 4.9% MIX ST 44%FF 30%SI 21%FS 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kerkering, Orion · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.1STFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.1FFSI: HB 1.2, IVB 1.6SIFS: HB -1.2, IVB 2.2FS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.0% 155 112 limited sample
FB 29.4% 97 101 limited sample
SI 23.6% 78 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 48%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sinker 19%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.71
K% Δ+0.003
Sample22.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.4----
Batters Faced171----
K%25.2%19.5% to 35.8%+/- 8.2%
BB%8.8%4.9% to 12.8%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.9%19.1% to 31.0%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.160.43 to 1.77+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3130.231 to 0.338+/- 0.054
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.1% to 11.1%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.921.18 to 5.47+/- 2.14
FIP3.541.85 to 4.44+/- 1.30
WHIP1.3071.010 to 1.687+/- 0.338
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

249 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%25.3%
BB%9.5%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

360 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%25.2%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.9%