Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Shugart, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.8% K%
Range
12.8% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.82
ERA current pace3.98
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight50%
ERA
2.10 2.95 3.90 4.85 5.70
FIP
3.45 3.94 4.48 5.02 5.51
K%
18.1% 19.9% 21.8% 23.8% 25.5%
BB%
6.9% 8.0% 9.3% 10.6% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
65
ERA3.98
53
BB%10.1%
36
K%26.1%
77 +49 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.300
67 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.5%
20 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
59
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
84
Whiff%21.8%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+101
43
Cutter Stuff+100
39
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Slider Stuff+101
44
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Shugart, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.300 2026-09-13: 0.3002026-09-14: 0.3002026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.3042026-09-22: 0.3042026-09-23: 0.3042026-09-24: 0.3042026-09-25: 0.3042026-09-26: 0.3032026-09-27: 0.300 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Shugart, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 30.7%Sinker: 28.4%Sweeper: 20.9%4-Seam Fastball: 10.5%Changeup: 9.5% FC31% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 31%SI 28%ST 21%FF 11%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphFC91 mphSinker: 28% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 21% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 30.0% 164 100 limited sample
SI 28.5% 156 104 limited sample
SL 22.3% 122 101 limited sample
CH 10.2% 56 101 limited sample
FB 9.0% 49 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 29%, Cutter 25%, Sinker 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.08
K% Δ+0.073
Sample55.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.1----
Batters Faced133----
K%18.8%12.8% to 25.6%+/- 6.4%
BB%9.1%5.2% to 13.4%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%20.4%16.7% to 26.9%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.380.44 to 2.36+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3410.256 to 0.378+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.1% to 11.8%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.901.45 to 6.55+/- 2.55
FIP4.573.00 to 5.91+/- 1.46
WHIP1.3790.851 to 1.646+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

97 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%13.9%
BB%9.6%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%16.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.4%