Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Shugart, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.8% K%
Range
12.8% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.82
ERA current pace1.53
ERA rolling p503.19
Observed weight27%
ERA
1.21 2.15 3.19 4.24 5.17
FIP
3.13 3.67 4.26 4.86 5.39
K%
14.8% 17.2% 19.8% 22.4% 24.7%
BB%
5.5% 7.0% 8.6% 10.3% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
47
Barrel allowed7.1%
59
Fastball velo94.7
58
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
50
K%25.6%
73 +50 vs proj
Whiff%20.4%
28
xwOBA allowed0.292
70 +45 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

1 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Shugart, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-06-01: 0.292 2026-06-01 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Shugart, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 40%40%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.6%Cutter: 25.9%Sweeper: 23.8%4-Seam Fastball: 14.6%Changeup: 8.1% MIX SI 28%FC 26%ST 24%FF 15%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.6, IVB 1.7SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1FCST: HB -0.2, IVB 3.5STFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.2FFCH: HB -1.0, IVB 2.4CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.0% 86 103 limited sample
FC 28.6% 85 99 limited sample
SL 22.6% 67 95 limited sample
FB 11.8% 35 107 limited sample
CH 8.1% 24 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 29%, Cutter 25%, Sinker 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.37
K% Δ+0.068
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.1----
Batters Faced137----
K%18.8%12.8% to 25.6%+/- 6.4%
BB%9.1%5.2% to 13.4%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%20.4%16.7% to 26.9%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.380.44 to 2.36+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3410.256 to 0.378+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.1% to 11.8%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.921.45 to 6.55+/- 2.55
FIP4.573.00 to 5.91+/- 1.46
WHIP1.3750.851 to 1.646+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

97 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%13.9%
BB%9.6%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%16.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.4%