Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Shugart, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.8% K%
Range
12.8% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.82
ERA current pace4.97
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.38 3.26 4.24 5.22 6.11
FIP
3.61 4.11 4.67 5.23 5.74
K%
16.4% 18.5% 20.9% 23.2% 25.3%
BB%
6.5% 7.8% 9.3% 10.8% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
27
ERA4.97
26
BB%10.7%
27 -18 vs proj
K%26.4%
76 +51 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.336
28
Barrel allowed10.6%
14 -28 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
51
Whiff%22.6%
46 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+101
40
Cutter Stuff+101
41
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Slider Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Shugart, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.336 2026-07-06: 0.3372026-07-07: 0.3372026-07-08: 0.3372026-07-09: 0.3372026-07-10: 0.3372026-07-11: 0.3372026-07-12: 0.3372026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3372026-07-15: 0.3372026-07-16: 0.3372026-07-17: 0.336 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Shugart, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 28.1%Sinker: 28.0%Sweeper: 23.1%4-Seam Fastball: 13.8%Changeup: 7.0% FC28% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 28%SI 28%ST 23%FF 14%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphFC91 mphSinker: 28% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.9 mphST82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.5 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.4 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.4% 98 102 limited sample
FC 28.5% 95 101 limited sample
SL 22.8% 76 97 limited sample
FB 11.4% 38 107 limited sample
CH 7.8% 26 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 29%, Cutter 25%, Sinker 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.07
K% Δ+0.076
Sample31.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.6----
Batters Faced135----
K%18.8%12.8% to 25.6%+/- 6.4%
BB%9.1%5.2% to 13.4%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%20.4%16.7% to 26.9%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.380.44 to 2.36+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3410.256 to 0.378+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.1% to 11.8%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.901.45 to 6.55+/- 2.55
FIP4.573.00 to 5.91+/- 1.46
WHIP1.3750.851 to 1.646+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

97 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%13.9%
BB%9.6%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%16.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.4%