Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026

Marsh, Brandon

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.328 xwOBA
Range
0.286 to 0.377
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced regular Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
76
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
62
Defense4 metrics
53
Speed3 metrics
76
Plate skills10 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.325
xwOBA current pace0.322
xwOBA rolling p500.323
Observed weight63%
xwOBA
0.297 0.310 0.323 0.337 0.349
wOBA
0.345 0.360 0.376 0.393 0.408
ISO
0.153 0.167 0.183 0.199 0.213
K%
23.8% 25.0% 26.4% 27.8% 29.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
73
Exit velocity89.6
68
Hard-hit%45.7%
79
xBA0.377
91
xSLG0.614
80
xwOBA0.322
65
BB%5.2%
15 -53 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
51
K%25.9%
32
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.3 · LF
1
Arm Strength100.5 · LF
95
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs-1.0 · LF
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · LF
81
SB Success Rate88.9% · LF
74
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
73
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions63.9% · rebadged research
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
87
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391 · validated
6
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Marsh, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.322 2026-07-06: 0.3252026-07-07: 0.3272026-07-08: 0.3252026-07-09: 0.3252026-07-10: 0.3252026-07-11: 0.3262026-07-12: 0.3242026-07-13: 0.3242026-07-14: 0.3222026-07-15: 0.3222026-07-16: 0.3222026-07-17: 0.322 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

185 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Marsh, Brandon · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsPull 19%Center field third: 61% of plotted batted ballsCenter 61%Right field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsOppo 19% LF 329 CF 401 RF 330 2026-03-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-03-15 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.6 / LA 84.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 42.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 78.5 / LA 24.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -9.02026-03-19 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 31.02026-03-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 15.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 46.02026-03-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 10.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 25.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 39.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA -35.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 13.02026-03-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 18.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA -3.02026-03-26 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 10.02026-03-26 · double · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -3.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 63.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -7.02026-03-28 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 10.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 3.02026-03-30 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 67.6 / LA 32.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 29.02026-03-31 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 6.02026-03-31 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 13.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 25.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.2 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -4.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 48.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 39.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 32.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 18.02026-04-03 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 29.02026-04-03 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 58.3 / LA -47.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 40.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA -15.02026-04-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 16.02026-04-05 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 10.02026-04-06 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 12.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -19.02026-04-06 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 47.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.6 / LA -36.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -23.02026-04-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 26.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -10.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 87.0 / LA 22.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 25.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 0.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 17.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 16.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.5 / LA -16.02026-04-13 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -26.02026-04-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 9.02026-04-13 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 16.02026-04-13 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 65.4 / LA 14.02026-04-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 11.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 35.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -14.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 77.5 / LA 13.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA -8.02026-04-18 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 25.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.4 / LA 26.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.1 / LA 31.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 21.02026-04-20 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 6.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -13.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 33.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -1.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 77.0 / LA 30.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -8.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 21.02026-04-23 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -9.02026-04-23 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 39.02026-04-23 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 27.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 17.02026-04-24 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 13.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball2026-04-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -15.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 75.8 / LA 39.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 38.02026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 0.02026-04-25 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.5 / LA -2.02026-04-25 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 5.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 32.02026-04-28 · sac fly · FS · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 34.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · popup · EV 73.2 / LA 67.02026-04-28 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -14.02026-04-30 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 3.02026-04-30 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 17.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 20.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 10.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 50.02026-05-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 10.02026-05-03 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 22.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.0 / LA 65.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 65.02026-05-04 · field out · ST · popup · EV 55.1 / LA 51.02026-05-04 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 21.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -56.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 13.02026-05-05 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 9.02026-05-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 15.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 27.02026-05-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 38.1 / LA -29.02026-05-06 · triple · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 25.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 24.02026-05-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -2.02026-05-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 4.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -18.02026-05-07 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 1.02026-05-08 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.9 / LA 5.02026-05-08 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 13.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -4.02026-05-09 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 38.02026-05-09 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 82.5 / LA 19.02026-05-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 4.02026-05-10 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 86.8 / LA 16.02026-05-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -6.02026-05-10 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 0.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 26.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 8.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 45.0 / LA -57.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 24.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 45.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 19.02026-05-14 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 9.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 58.9 / LA -52.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 7.02026-05-15 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 69.9 / LA 0.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 42.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 61.8 / LA -31.02026-05-15 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 25.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 53.8 / LA 38.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA -17.02026-05-16 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 77.0 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 52.02026-05-17 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 13.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA -8.02026-05-20 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 67.8 / LA -52.02026-05-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -4.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -30.02026-05-22 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 14.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -15.02026-05-24 · triple · SL · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 21.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -17.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 52.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 17.02026-05-25 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 25.02026-05-25 · field out · FS · popup · EV 70.1 / LA 65.02026-05-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 14.02026-05-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 82.3 / LA 18.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 20.02026-06-04 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.4 / LA -48.02026-06-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 15.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 56.02026-06-05 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 23.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 20.02026-06-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 11.02026-06-07 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 28.02026-06-15 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 32.02026-06-15 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 21.02026-06-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 77.2 / LA 21.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -32.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.4 / LA 71.02026-06-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -4.02026-06-20 · field out · FA · line_drive · EV 80.1 / LA 13.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 45.3 / LA -12.02026-06-22 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 24.02026-06-22 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 20.02026-06-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 14.02026-06-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -3.02026-06-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 4.02026-06-26 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 69.6 / LA 48.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 9.02026-06-30 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 48.8 / LA -64.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 23.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · popup · EV 77.6 / LA 73.02026-07-01 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 27.02026-07-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 75.5 / LA 22.02026-07-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 29.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Marsh, Brandon · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 71.1 mph Hard swing rate 15% Whiff / swing 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Marsh, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 37%37%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.281 vs 0.238 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.006
wOBA Δ+0.049
Sample382 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances483----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3280.286 to 0.377+/- 0.046
ISO0.1740.111 to 0.249+/- 0.069
Barrel%6.1%3.7% to 8.0%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%47.0%40.7% to 53.5%+/- 6.4%
K%27.3%23.4% to 34.1%+/- 5.3%
BB%10.0%7.8% to 12.7%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.3430.304 to 0.402+/- 0.049
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

535 career PA

xwOBA0.238
K%27.7%
BB%8.1%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHP

1813 career PA

xwOBA0.281
K%23.5%
BB%9.2%
Barrel5.0%