Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026

Marsh, Brandon

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.328 xwOBA
Range
0.286 to 0.377
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced regular Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.325
xwOBA current pace0.327
xwOBA rolling p500.326
Observed weight50%
xwOBA
0.296 0.310 0.326 0.342 0.357
wOBA
0.343 0.363 0.385 0.407 0.427
ISO
0.127 0.145 0.165 0.184 0.202
K%
21.5% 23.0% 24.7% 26.4% 27.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.0%
13 -52 vs proj
Barrel%5.4%
55
Bat speed69.4
47
Exit velocity89.6
63
Hard-hit%46.2%
76
K%22.1%
49 +25 vs proj
xBA0.381
91
xSLG0.583
70
xwOBA0.327
66
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · LF
13
Arm Strength93.7 · LF
64
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.0 · LF
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
57
SB Success Rate80.0% · LF
49
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
75
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.9% · rebadged research
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.5% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.381 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
13
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Marsh, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3382026-05-19: 0.3352026-05-21: 0.3292026-05-23: 0.3242026-05-24: 0.3222026-05-25: 0.3232026-05-26: 0.3252026-05-28: 0.3302026-05-29: 0.3302026-05-30: 0.3302026-05-31: 0.3302026-06-01: 0.327 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

157 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Marsh, Brandon · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsPull 18%Center field third: 64% of plotted batted ballsCenter 64%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 329 CF 401 RF 330 2026-03-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-03-15 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.6 / LA 84.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -9.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 78.5 / LA 24.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 42.02026-03-19 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 31.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 46.02026-03-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 15.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 25.02026-03-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 10.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 39.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 13.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA -35.02026-03-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 18.02026-03-26 · double · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -3.02026-03-26 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 10.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA -3.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 63.02026-03-28 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 10.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -7.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 29.02026-03-30 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 67.6 / LA 32.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 3.02026-03-31 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 6.02026-03-31 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 13.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 25.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.2 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -4.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 48.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 39.02026-04-03 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 29.02026-04-03 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 58.3 / LA -47.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 18.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 32.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 40.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA -15.02026-04-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 16.02026-04-05 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 10.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -19.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.6 / LA -36.02026-04-06 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 12.02026-04-06 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 47.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -23.02026-04-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 26.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 25.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -10.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 87.0 / LA 22.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.5 / LA -16.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 0.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 17.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 16.02026-04-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 9.02026-04-13 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 16.02026-04-13 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 65.4 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -26.02026-04-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 11.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -14.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 35.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA -8.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 77.5 / LA 13.02026-04-18 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.4 / LA 26.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.1 / LA 31.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 25.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 33.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -13.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 21.02026-04-20 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 6.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 77.0 / LA 30.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -8.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 21.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -1.02026-04-23 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 27.02026-04-23 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -9.02026-04-23 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 39.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball2026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 17.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -15.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 75.8 / LA 39.02026-04-24 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 13.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 38.02026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 0.02026-04-25 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.5 / LA -2.02026-04-25 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 5.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 32.02026-04-28 · sac fly · FS · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 34.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · popup · EV 73.2 / LA 67.02026-04-28 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -14.02026-04-30 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 17.02026-04-30 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 3.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 10.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 20.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 50.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.0 / LA 65.02026-05-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 10.02026-05-03 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 22.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 65.02026-05-04 · field out · ST · popup · EV 55.1 / LA 51.02026-05-04 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 21.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -56.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 13.02026-05-05 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 9.02026-05-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 15.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 27.02026-05-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 38.1 / LA -29.02026-05-06 · triple · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 25.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 24.02026-05-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -2.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -18.02026-05-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 4.02026-05-07 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 1.02026-05-08 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 13.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -4.02026-05-08 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.9 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 38.02026-05-09 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 82.5 / LA 19.02026-05-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 4.02026-05-10 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 86.8 / LA 16.02026-05-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -6.02026-05-10 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 0.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 45.0 / LA -57.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 26.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 24.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 8.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 45.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 9.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 58.9 / LA -52.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 19.02026-05-14 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 9.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 7.02026-05-15 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 69.9 / LA 0.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 42.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 61.8 / LA -31.02026-05-15 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 25.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 53.8 / LA 38.02026-05-16 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 77.0 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA -17.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 52.02026-05-17 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 13.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA -8.02026-05-20 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 67.8 / LA -52.02026-05-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -4.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -30.02026-05-22 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 14.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -15.02026-05-24 · triple · SL · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 21.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -17.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 52.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 17.02026-05-25 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 25.02026-05-25 · field out · FS · popup · EV 70.1 / LA 65.02026-05-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 82.3 / LA 18.02026-05-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 14.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 20.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Marsh, Brandon · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 37.1° Length 7.1 ft Ideal path 41% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Marsh, Brandon · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 9.4° Direction -1.4° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Marsh, Brandon · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 71.1 mph Hard swing rate 15% Whiff / swing 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Marsh, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 38%38%Whiff: 20%20%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 80%80%Hard hit: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.281 vs 0.238 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.001
wOBA Δ+0.057
Sample222 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances483----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3280.286 to 0.377+/- 0.046
ISO0.1740.111 to 0.249+/- 0.069
Barrel%6.1%3.7% to 8.0%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%47.0%40.7% to 53.5%+/- 6.4%
K%27.3%23.4% to 34.1%+/- 5.3%
BB%10.0%7.8% to 12.7%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.3430.304 to 0.402+/- 0.049
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

535 career PA

xwOBA0.238
K%27.7%
BB%8.1%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHP

1813 career PA

xwOBA0.281
K%23.5%
BB%9.2%
Barrel5.0%