Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Duran, Jhoan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.8% K%
Range
20.6% to 36.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
94
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
85
Arsenal5 metrics
20
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason3.13
ERA current pace1.99
ERA rolling p502.79
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.30 2.01 2.79 3.58 4.29
FIP
1.74 2.20 2.71 3.22 3.68
K%
23.6% 26.4% 29.6% 32.7% 35.5%
BB%
5.1% 6.5% 8.1% 9.7% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.95
93
ERA1.99
92
BB%5.9%
87 +41 vs proj
K%35.3%
98 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.242
97 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.0%
82
Fastball velo100.2
99
Hard-hit allowed45.0%
15
Whiff%34.1%
97 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Changeup Stuff+94
9
Curveball Stuff+96
1
Fastball Stuff+103
52
Mithrandir Stuff+100
38
Slider Stuff+86
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Duran, Jhoan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.242 2026-06-05: 0.2432026-06-06: 0.2352026-06-07: 0.2352026-06-08: 0.2352026-06-09: 0.2352026-06-10: 0.2392026-06-11: 0.2432026-06-12: 0.2472026-06-13: 0.2472026-06-14: 0.2472026-06-15: 0.2422026-06-16: 0.242 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Duran, Jhoan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 34%34%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 44.1%4-Seam Fastball: 26.7%Sweeper: 10.8%Knuckle Curve: 10.0%Changeup: 8.3% FS44% · 98 mphprimary pitch FS 44%FF 27%ST 11%KC 10%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Split-Finger: 44% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 97.5 mphFS98 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 100.2 mphFF100 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.5 mphST88 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 88.0 mphKC88 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.0 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.1% 80 103 limited sample
CB 17.8% 29 96 limited sample
SL 17.2% 28 86 limited sample
CH 16.0% 26 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 40%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Knuckle Curve 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.36
K% Δ+0.085
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.2----
Batters Faced174----
K%26.8%20.6% to 36.8%+/- 8.1%
BB%9.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%27.5%23.8% to 35.1%+/- 5.6%
HR/90.810.43 to 1.63+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2880.227 to 0.341+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed6.2%2.5% to 10.0%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.351.48 to 5.39+/- 1.96
FIP3.012.08 to 4.62+/- 1.27
WHIP1.2560.982 to 1.665+/- 0.341
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

556 career BF

xwOBA0.245
K%28.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHH

567 career BF

xwOBA0.256
K%26.1%
BB%7.2%
Barrel5.4%