Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Turner, Trea
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.289 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.289
0.304
0.318
0.331
wOBA
0.262
0.278
0.297
0.315
0.332
ISO
0.116
0.131
0.147
0.164
0.178
K%
18.4%
19.5%
20.8%
22.1%
23.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.5%
23
Barrel%4.3%
40
Bat speed70.1
56
Exit velocity89.8
68
Hard-hit%40.4%
51
K%22.0%
49
-27 vs proj
xBA0.311
36
xSLG0.478
39
xwOBA0.289
30
-28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.9 · SS
55
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · SS
9
Range Runs-1.7 · SS
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · SS
96
Bolts37.0 · SS
98
SB Success Rate90.9% · SS
85
Sprint Speed30.0 · SS
99
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.7% · rebadged research
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
65
Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.242 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259 · validated thin sample
90
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332 · validated
93
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
192 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.022 |
| Sample | 277 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 601 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.319 | 0.288 to 0.375 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.153 | 0.124 to 0.250 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 3.4% to 7.3% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.1% | 37.7% to 48.2% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 17.8% | 16.4% to 24.2% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 4.6% to 9.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.323 | 0.298 to 0.376 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
1625 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.296 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
4430 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |