Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Kilian, Caleb

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
19.7% K%
Range
7.5% to 22.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace2.22
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.26 2.94 3.71 4.47 5.16
FIP
3.12 3.60 4.13 4.66 5.14
K%
15.8% 18.3% 21.1% 23.9% 26.4%
BB%
6.4% 7.6% 9.1% 10.5% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.8%
17 -43 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
57 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo96.6
84
Hard-hit allowed34.8%
77
K%28.6%
86 +56 vs proj
Whiff%26.1%
72 +54 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kilian, Caleb · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3052026-05-19: 0.3052026-05-21: 0.3132026-05-23: 0.3132026-05-24: 0.3132026-05-25: 0.3022026-05-26: 0.3022026-05-28: 0.2882026-05-29: 0.2872026-05-30: 0.2872026-05-31: 0.3092026-06-01: 0.306 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kilian, Caleb · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kilian, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.2%Knuckle Curve: 26.9%Slider: 16.7%Sinker: 8.1% MIX FF 48%KC 27%SL 17%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kilian, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.1FFKC: HB 0.4, IVB 4.8KCSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.9SLSI: HB 0.6, IVB 1.6SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.7% 194 109 limited sample
CB 26.9% 103 97 limited sample
SL 14.4% 55 114 limited sample
SI 8.1% 31 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.12
K% Δ+0.089
Sample29.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.2----
Batters Faced278----
K%19.7%7.5% to 22.5%+/- 7.5%
BB%8.1%4.2% to 11.4%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%18.9%9.4% to 22.9%+/- 6.8%
HR/91.590.54 to 1.81+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3210.232 to 0.374+/- 0.071
Barrel% Allowed8.7%4.9% to 12.0%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.342.50 to 6.39+/- 1.94
FIP4.032.84 to 5.54+/- 1.35
WHIP1.3360.917 to 1.614+/- 0.349
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

63 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%6.9%
BB%6.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

75 career BF

xwOBA0.213
K%7.5%
BB%5.5%
Barrel7.7%