Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | confirmed
|
PHI vs PIT
Score 87.1 | Lineup K 7.15
|
6.77 | 7.11 | +0.34 | 88.2% | 78.5% | 66.6% | 53.8% | 41.3% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | confirmed
|
PIT vs PHI
Score 76.9 | Lineup K 6.38
|
5.33 | 5.82 | +0.49 | 78.8% | 65.1% | 50.4% | 36.8% | 25.3% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | confirmed
|
TEX vs CLE
Score 64.1 | Lineup K 5.57
|
5.77 | 5.71 | -0.06 | 77.7% | 63.7% | 48.9% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | confirmed
|
NYM vs TOR
Score 63.9 | Lineup K 5.28
|
5.54 | 5.51 | -0.03 | 75.7% | 61.0% | 46.0% | 32.5% | 21.6% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | confirmed
|
CLE vs TEX
Score 56.3 | Lineup K 5.39
|
5.35 | 5.34 | -0.01 | 73.8% | 58.6% | 43.5% | 30.1% | 19.7% |
Will Warren
Probable | confirmed
|
NYY vs DET
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 5.75
|
5.12 | 5.30 | +0.18 | 73.4% | 58.1% | 42.9% | 29.6% | 19.2% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | confirmed
|
MIN vs HOU
Score 56.9 | Lineup K 5.43
|
5.01 | 5.19 | +0.18 | 72.0% | 56.5% | 41.2% | 28.1% | 18.0% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | confirmed
|
KC vs TB
Score 42.4 | Lineup K 4.54
|
5.11 | 4.88 | -0.23 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Max Meyer
Probable | confirmed
|
MIA vs COL
Score 48.4 | Lineup K 5.44
|
4.58 | 4.87 | +0.29 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | confirmed
|
ATH vs LAD
Score 48.6 | Lineup K 5.40
|
4.52 | 4.82 | +0.30 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | confirmed
|
BAL vs CWS
Score 56.4 | Lineup K 4.24
|
4.81 | 4.59 | -0.22 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | confirmed
|
AZ vs SF
Score 52.6 | Lineup K 4.52
|
4.23 | 4.34 | +0.11 | 60.2% | 42.9% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Colin Rea
Probable | confirmed
|
CHC vs SD
Score 42.9 | Lineup K 3.94
|
4.28 | 4.05 | -0.23 | 55.4% | 37.9% | 23.8% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | confirmed
|
CIN vs MIL
Score 45.7 | Lineup K 4.73
|
3.63 | 4.00 | +0.37 | 54.5% | 37.0% | 23.1% | 13.3% | 7.1% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | confirmed
|
COL vs MIA
Score 36.3 | Lineup K 3.70
|
4.05 | 3.88 | -0.17 | 52.4% | 34.9% | 21.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
Brad Lord
Probable | confirmed
|
WSH vs BOS
Score 38.2 | Lineup K 4.27
|
3.54 | 3.72 | +0.18 | 49.5% | 32.1% | 19.1% | 10.4% | 5.3% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | confirmed
|
SD vs CHC
Score 27.3 | Lineup K 4.01
|
3.10 | 3.29 | +0.19 | 41.1% | 24.6% | 13.4% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | confirmed
|
STL vs ATL
Score 23.4 | Lineup K 3.64
|
2.58 | 2.83 | +0.25 | 31.7% | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.