Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CIN
Score 79.1 | Lineup K 5.95
|
6.36 | 6.23 | -0.13 | 82.3% | 69.9% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 30.3% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs DET
Score 57.8 | Lineup K 5.59
|
5.75 | 5.73 | -0.02 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs TEX
Score 51.9 | Lineup K 6.20
|
4.57 | 5.13 | +0.56 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAA
Score 57.9 | Lineup K 5.71
|
4.43 | 4.91 | +0.48 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Hurston Waldrep
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs STL
Score 51.9 | Lineup K 5.24
|
4.58 | 4.82 | +0.24 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs COL
Score 56.4 | Lineup K 5.67
|
3.98 | 4.48 | +0.50 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs MIA
Score 40.9 | Lineup K 4.63
|
4.13 | 4.27 | +0.14 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CWS
Score 43.3 | Lineup K 4.22
|
4.18 | 4.17 | -0.01 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs ATL
Score 28.7 | Lineup K 4.78
|
3.83 | 4.09 | +0.26 | 56.1% | 38.6% | 24.4% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
Stephen Kolek
Probable | projected
|
KC vs TB
Score 34.5 | Lineup K 4.04
|
4.11 | 4.03 | -0.08 | 55.0% | 37.6% | 23.5% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs CLE
Score 34.5 | Lineup K 3.91
|
3.98 | 3.91 | -0.07 | 52.9% | 35.5% | 21.8% | 12.3% | 6.5% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAD
Score 9.7 | Lineup K 3.28
|
3.10 | 3.06 | -0.04 | 36.4% | 20.8% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.