Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs TB
Score 79.8 | Lineup K 6.54
|
6.79 | 6.86 | +0.07 | 86.7% | 76.3% | 63.8% | 50.6% | 38.2% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAA
Score 79.8 | Lineup K 6.77
|
6.52 | 6.77 | +0.25 | 86.2% | 75.5% | 62.7% | 49.5% | 37.1% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs STL
Score 73.3 | Lineup K 5.49
|
6.44 | 6.22 | -0.22 | 82.3% | 69.8% | 55.9% | 42.2% | 30.2% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs MIN
Score 60.0 | Lineup K 5.71
|
5.87 | 5.86 | -0.01 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs NYY
Score 45.8 | Lineup K 5.84
|
4.67 | 5.11 | +0.44 | 71.1% | 55.3% | 40.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs BOS
Score 47.2 | Lineup K 5.25
|
4.97 | 5.11 | +0.14 | 71.1% | 55.3% | 40.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs SEA
Score 47.3 | Lineup K 5.71
|
4.77 | 5.09 | +0.32 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs WSH
Score 58.9 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.73 | 4.95 | +0.22 | 69.0% | 52.8% | 37.5% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TEX
Score 41.7 | Lineup K 5.06
|
4.81 | 4.86 | +0.05 | 67.8% | 51.4% | 36.1% | 23.7% | 14.5% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SD
Score 33.3 | Lineup K 4.32
|
4.29 | 4.24 | -0.05 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs CIN
Score 59.4 | Lineup K 5.73
|
3.68 | 4.15 | +0.47 | 57.1% | 39.6% | 25.3% | 14.9% | 8.2% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs PHI
Score 37.2 | Lineup K 4.56
|
3.48 | 3.82 | +0.34 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs CWS
Score 33.5 | Lineup K 3.89
|
3.69 | 3.71 | +0.02 | 49.3% | 31.9% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATL
Score 19.7 | Lineup K 3.41
|
3.58 | 3.44 | -0.14 | 44.1% | 27.2% | 15.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIL
Score 27.1 | Lineup K 4.16
|
2.90 | 3.19 | +0.29 | 39.1% | 22.9% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 11.3 | Lineup K 2.82
|
3.49 | 3.15 | -0.34 | 38.3% | 22.3% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.