{ "date": "2026-07-01", "generated_at": "2026-07-01T22:18:26.643379", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 18, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 823446, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 20.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "prob_4_plus": 0.8818, "prob_5_plus": 0.7851, "prob_6_plus": 0.6659, "prob_7_plus": 0.5375, "prob_8_plus": 0.4133, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 87.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.101, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Konnor Griffin", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Esmerlyn Valdez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Henry Davis", "matchup_score": 98.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 164.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 96.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Esmerlyn Valdez", "matchup_score": 92.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 823446, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "prob_4_plus": 0.7878, "prob_5_plus": 0.6507, "prob_6_plus": 0.5043, "prob_7_plus": 0.3676, "prob_8_plus": 0.253, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.101, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 86.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Derek Hill", "matchup_score": 86.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.8, "expected_contact_quality": 91.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "matchup_score": 81.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824419, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "skill_score": 26.5, "opportunity_score": 41.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "prob_4_plus": 0.7772, "prob_5_plus": 0.6367, "prob_6_plus": 0.4887, "prob_7_plus": 0.3524, "prob_8_plus": 0.2398, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Chase DeLauter", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Rhys Hoskins", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brayan Rocchio", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.3, "expected_contact_quality": 88.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 75.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 822791, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.7568, "prob_5_plus": 0.6101, "prob_6_plus": 0.4597, "prob_7_plus": 0.3248, "prob_8_plus": 0.2163, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alejandro Kirk", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 76.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.3, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Keys", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824419, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "skill_score": 36.9, "opportunity_score": 24.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "prob_4_plus": 0.738, "prob_5_plus": 0.5864, "prob_6_plus": 0.4345, "prob_7_plus": 0.3014, "prob_8_plus": 0.1968, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Justin Foscue", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Duran", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justin Foscue", "matchup_score": 77.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Elias D\u00edaz", "matchup_score": 65.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.7, "expected_contact_quality": 65.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Duran", "matchup_score": 63.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.7, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 823530, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.7335, "prob_5_plus": 0.5807, "prob_6_plus": 0.4285, "prob_7_plus": 0.296, "prob_8_plus": 0.1924, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.103, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kevin McGonigle", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Hao-Yu Lee", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "James Outman", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.4, "expected_contact_quality": 120.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Hao-Yu Lee", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 92.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.4, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824174, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 42.6, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.7205, "prob_5_plus": 0.5647, "prob_6_plus": 0.4119, "prob_7_plus": 0.281, "prob_8_plus": 0.1802, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cam Smith", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Trammell", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Cam Smith", "matchup_score": 74.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824094, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "prob_4_plus": 0.6811, "prob_5_plus": 0.5175, "prob_6_plus": 0.3646, "prob_7_plus": 0.2394, "prob_8_plus": 0.1475, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 53.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.8, "expected_contact_quality": 74.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.0, "expected_contact_quality": 100.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824337, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 38.9, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "prob_4_plus": 0.6798, "prob_5_plus": 0.516, "prob_6_plus": 0.363, "prob_7_plus": 0.2381, "prob_8_plus": 0.1465, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.054, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake McCarthy", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "TJ Rumfield", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 67.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 63.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Karros", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 68.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824985, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 28.0, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "prob_4_plus": 0.673, "prob_5_plus": 0.5081, "prob_6_plus": 0.3553, "prob_7_plus": 0.2315, "prob_8_plus": 0.1415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Chuckie Robinson", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 74.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 63.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Freeland", "matchup_score": 52.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 147.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824818, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 93.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 63.5, "opportunity_score": 41.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.963, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 93.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Sam Antonacci", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Miguel Vargas", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Braden Montgomery", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jacob Gonzalez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tristan Peters", "matchup_score": 86.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 170.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Drew Romo", "matchup_score": 82.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Braden Montgomery", "matchup_score": 53.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 825064, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 16.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "prob_4_plus": 0.6019, "prob_5_plus": 0.4291, "prob_6_plus": 0.2815, "prob_7_plus": 0.1713, "prob_8_plus": 0.0975, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryce Eldridge", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Christian Koss", "matchup_score": 66.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Eldridge", "matchup_score": 60.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.9, "expected_contact_quality": 109.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824660, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "prob_4_plus": 0.5538, "prob_5_plus": 0.3791, "prob_6_plus": 0.2379, "prob_7_plus": 0.1382, "prob_8_plus": 0.0749, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.109, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jase Bowen", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Gavin Sheets", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Freddy Fermin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ty France", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Samad Taylor", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Samad Taylor", "matchup_score": 59.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jase Bowen", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Rodolfo Dur\u00e1n", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 823767, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "prob_4_plus": 0.5451, "prob_5_plus": 0.3704, "prob_6_plus": 0.2306, "prob_7_plus": 0.1328, "prob_8_plus": 0.0713, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.05, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Garrett Mitchell", "matchup_score": 71.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 55.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 100.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824337, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "prob_4_plus": 0.5238, "prob_5_plus": 0.3493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2131, "prob_7_plus": 0.1201, "prob_8_plus": 0.0631, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.054, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Otto Lopez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Esteury Ruiz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Liam Hicks", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Javier Sanoja", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Owen Caissie", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leo Jim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 41.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Esteury Ruiz", "matchup_score": 39.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.8, "expected_contact_quality": 62.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824740, "pitcher_id": 695418, "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 93.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.72, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "prob_4_plus": 0.4945, "prob_5_plus": 0.3212, "prob_6_plus": 0.1905, "prob_7_plus": 0.1042, "prob_8_plus": 0.0531, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "temperature_f": 93.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.043, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Anthony Seigler", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Wong", "matchup_score": 52.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Andruw Monasterio", "matchup_score": 47.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 64.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824660, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 11.9, "opportunity_score": 22.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "prob_4_plus": 0.4112, "prob_5_plus": 0.2464, "prob_6_plus": 0.1341, "prob_7_plus": 0.067, "prob_8_plus": 0.0311, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.109, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Pedro Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jordan Wicks", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Kevin Alc\u00e1ntara", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justin Dean", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.9, "expected_contact_quality": 89.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Kevin Alc\u00e1ntara", "matchup_score": 40.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Amaya", "matchup_score": 33.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "game_pk": 824905, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "prob_4_plus": 0.3172, "prob_5_plus": 0.171, "prob_6_plus": 0.0832, "prob_7_plus": 0.0371, "prob_8_plus": 0.0153, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mauricio Dub\u00f3n", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jorge Mateo", "matchup_score": 44.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Mauricio Dub\u00f3n", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 58.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Smith", "matchup_score": 31.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 63.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 702273, "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680755, "pitcher_name": "Braydon Fisher", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 837227, "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686790, "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }