Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIL
Score 79.2 | Lineup K 6.71
|
6.79 | 6.92 | +0.13 | 87.1% | 76.9% | 64.5% | 51.4% | 39.0% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs HOU
Score 70.0 | Lineup K 5.86
|
6.52 | 6.39 | -0.13 | 83.6% | 71.7% | 58.1% | 44.5% | 32.3% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs NYM
Score 49.7 | Lineup K 5.46
|
6.25 | 5.97 | -0.28 | 80.2% | 66.9% | 52.5% | 38.8% | 27.1% |
Carlos Rodón
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 59.7 | Lineup K 5.43
|
5.92 | 5.85 | -0.07 | 79.1% | 65.5% | 50.8% | 37.2% | 25.7% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 62.0 | Lineup K 5.54
|
5.53 | 5.64 | +0.11 | 77.0% | 62.7% | 47.9% | 34.3% | 23.2% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIA
Score 52.3 | Lineup K 5.02
|
5.35 | 5.30 | -0.05 | 73.4% | 58.1% | 42.9% | 29.6% | 19.2% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs SF
Score 56.3 | Lineup K 5.39
|
5.02 | 5.18 | +0.16 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs ATH
Score 56.9 | Lineup K 5.83
|
4.77 | 5.17 | +0.40 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs TEX
Score 57.7 | Lineup K 5.58
|
4.73 | 5.06 | +0.33 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAD
Score 52.3 | Lineup K 5.63
|
4.72 | 5.05 | +0.33 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 50.6 | Lineup K 5.13
|
4.29 | 4.59 | +0.30 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 5.23
|
3.80 | 4.25 | +0.45 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs NYY
Score 47.4 | Lineup K 4.77
|
3.90 | 4.24 | +0.34 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs PHI
Score 34.7 | Lineup K 5.05
|
3.84 | 4.21 | +0.37 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs NYY
Score 31.2 | Lineup K 4.76
|
3.48 | 3.88 | +0.40 | 52.4% | 34.9% | 21.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs AZ
Score 19.2 | Lineup K 3.39
|
4.07 | 3.74 | -0.33 | 49.8% | 32.5% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BAL
Score 48.8 | Lineup K 5.47
|
3.30 | 3.69 | +0.39 | 48.9% | 31.6% | 18.6% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SEA
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 5.05
|
3.07 | 3.40 | +0.33 | 43.3% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CHC
Score 24.7 | Lineup K 3.46
|
3.20 | 3.26 | +0.06 | 40.5% | 24.1% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs PIT
Score 30.4 | Lineup K 4.49
|
2.90 | 3.23 | +0.33 | 39.9% | 23.6% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.