Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs ATL
Score 63.7 | Lineup K 6.02
|
6.46 | 6.31 | -0.15 | 83.0% | 70.8% | 57.1% | 43.5% | 31.3% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs BAL
Score 67.8 | Lineup K 5.73
|
6.06 | 6.03 | -0.03 | 80.7% | 67.6% | 53.3% | 39.6% | 27.9% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs ATH
Score 52.5 | Lineup K 5.70
|
5.93 | 5.92 | -0.01 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs NYM
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 5.77
|
5.85 | 5.87 | +0.02 | 79.2% | 65.7% | 51.1% | 37.5% | 25.9% |
Corbin Burnes
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs NYY
Score 56.4 | Lineup K 6.47
|
5.31 | 5.75 | +0.44 | 78.1% | 64.2% | 49.4% | 35.8% | 24.5% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs TOR
Score 66.0 | Lineup K 5.45
|
5.60 | 5.56 | -0.04 | 76.2% | 61.7% | 46.7% | 33.2% | 22.2% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs LAA
Score 54.9 | Lineup K 5.78
|
4.43 | 4.92 | +0.49 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 51.3 | Lineup K 5.94
|
4.36 | 4.84 | +0.48 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs SD
Score 38.7 | Lineup K 5.07
|
4.73 | 4.81 | +0.08 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs PIT
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.62 | 4.64 | +0.02 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs AZ
Score 34.6 | Lineup K 4.49
|
4.75 | 4.60 | -0.15 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs DET
Score 28.9 | Lineup K 4.45
|
4.38 | 4.37 | -0.01 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs STL
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.61
|
3.92 | 4.07 | +0.15 | 55.7% | 38.3% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIL
Score 22.2 | Lineup K 3.90
|
3.69 | 3.68 | -0.01 | 48.7% | 31.4% | 18.5% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIA
Score 32.4 | Lineup K 4.13
|
3.49 | 3.66 | +0.17 | 48.3% | 31.1% | 18.2% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SEA
Score 20.8 | Lineup K 4.03
|
3.42 | 3.55 | +0.13 | 46.2% | 29.1% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs HOU
Score 18.6 | Lineup K 3.73
|
3.12 | 3.22 | +0.10 | 39.7% | 23.4% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.