Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CIN
Score 85.3 | Lineup K 7.16
|
6.54 | 6.95 | +0.41 | 87.3% | 77.1% | 64.8% | 51.8% | 39.4% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIA
Score 60.4 | Lineup K 5.72
|
5.94 | 5.91 | -0.03 | 79.6% | 66.2% | 51.7% | 38.0% | 26.4% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SD
Score 67.3 | Lineup K 5.63
|
5.89 | 5.88 | -0.01 | 79.3% | 65.8% | 51.3% | 37.6% | 26.0% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs HOU
Score 60.4 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.66 | 5.59 | -0.07 | 76.5% | 62.1% | 47.1% | 33.6% | 22.6% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs WSH
Score 59.4 | Lineup K 6.09
|
4.98 | 5.46 | +0.48 | 75.1% | 60.3% | 45.2% | 31.8% | 21.1% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIL
Score 51.4 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.32 | 5.43 | +0.11 | 74.8% | 59.9% | 44.8% | 31.4% | 20.7% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CLE
Score 69.7 | Lineup K 5.79
|
4.93 | 5.37 | +0.44 | 74.1% | 59.1% | 43.9% | 30.6% | 20.0% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAD
Score 40.7 | Lineup K 5.46
|
5.21 | 5.26 | +0.05 | 72.9% | 57.5% | 42.2% | 29.0% | 18.8% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CWS
Score 50.1 | Lineup K 4.88
|
5.14 | 5.05 | -0.09 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs LAA
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.70 | 4.79 | +0.09 | 66.9% | 50.3% | 35.1% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 63.3 | Lineup K 6.04
|
3.99 | 4.52 | +0.53 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CHC
Score 37.0 | Lineup K 4.73
|
4.24 | 4.37 | +0.13 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 5.23
|
3.80 | 4.30 | +0.50 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs ATL
Score 36.3 | Lineup K 4.84
|
3.65 | 4.02 | +0.37 | 54.9% | 37.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BAL
Score 48.8 | Lineup K 5.47
|
3.30 | 3.73 | +0.43 | 49.6% | 32.3% | 19.2% | 10.5% | 5.4% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs PIT
Score 28.7 | Lineup K 4.22
|
3.47 | 3.67 | +0.20 | 48.5% | 31.2% | 18.4% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.