Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Glasnow
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SD
Score 72.9 | Lineup K 6.23
|
6.27 | 6.37 | +0.10 | 83.4% | 71.5% | 57.8% | 44.2% | 32.1% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs STL
Score 80.6 | Lineup K 6.43
|
5.72 | 6.11 | +0.39 | 81.4% | 68.6% | 54.4% | 40.7% | 28.8% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 65.8 | Lineup K 5.37
|
6.00 | 5.91 | -0.09 | 79.6% | 66.2% | 51.7% | 38.0% | 26.4% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAA
Score 79.0 | Lineup K 6.57
|
5.12 | 5.76 | +0.64 | 78.2% | 64.3% | 49.6% | 35.9% | 24.6% |
Nick Pivetta
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAD
Score 49.0 | Lineup K 5.49
|
5.34 | 5.39 | +0.05 | 74.4% | 59.4% | 44.2% | 30.8% | 20.2% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIA
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 4.92
|
4.99 | 4.98 | -0.01 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CLE
Score 59.7 | Lineup K 5.15
|
4.65 | 4.91 | +0.26 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 58.3 | Lineup K 5.84
|
4.09 | 4.61 | +0.52 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CIN
Score 49.6 | Lineup K 4.93
|
4.41 | 4.59 | +0.18 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs ATL
Score 38.2 | Lineup K 5.24
|
3.95 | 4.36 | +0.41 | 60.5% | 43.2% | 28.5% | 17.4% | 9.9% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs NYM
Score 30.9 | Lineup K 4.63
|
4.23 | 4.26 | +0.03 | 58.9% | 41.5% | 26.9% | 16.2% | 9.1% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs AZ
Score 22.2 | Lineup K 3.28
|
4.00 | 3.66 | -0.34 | 48.3% | 31.1% | 18.2% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.