Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SF
Score 82.7 | Lineup K 6.76
|
6.17 | 6.54 | +0.37 | 84.7% | 73.2% | 60.0% | 46.5% | 34.2% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs ATH
Score 73.4 | Lineup K 6.56
|
6.08 | 6.36 | +0.28 | 83.4% | 71.4% | 57.7% | 44.1% | 32.0% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TEX
Score 67.7 | Lineup K 6.14
|
6.06 | 6.17 | +0.11 | 81.9% | 69.3% | 55.2% | 41.5% | 29.6% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs CIN
Score 54.0 | Lineup K 6.31
|
5.96 | 6.10 | +0.14 | 81.3% | 68.5% | 54.3% | 40.6% | 28.7% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs TB
Score 63.2 | Lineup K 5.47
|
6.23 | 6.09 | -0.14 | 81.2% | 68.3% | 54.2% | 40.5% | 28.6% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs PHI
Score 71.8 | Lineup K 6.25
|
5.55 | 5.96 | +0.41 | 80.1% | 66.8% | 52.4% | 38.7% | 27.0% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs MIN
Score 71.0 | Lineup K 5.91
|
5.22 | 5.55 | +0.33 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs KC
Score 45.8 | Lineup K 4.88
|
5.55 | 5.30 | -0.25 | 73.4% | 58.1% | 42.9% | 29.6% | 19.2% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs TOR
Score 53.7 | Lineup K 5.28
|
4.81 | 4.99 | +0.18 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAA
Score 57.9 | Lineup K 5.71
|
4.45 | 4.97 | +0.52 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATL
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.67 | 4.81 | +0.14 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs NYY
Score 40.9 | Lineup K 5.61
|
4.35 | 4.80 | +0.45 | 67.0% | 50.5% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs HOU
Score 52.3 | Lineup K 5.00
|
4.60 | 4.75 | +0.15 | 66.3% | 49.7% | 34.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs BOS
Score 42.7 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.36 | 4.72 | +0.36 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 29.2 | Lineup K 3.90
|
5.17 | 4.65 | -0.52 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs COL
Score 46.8 | Lineup K 5.27
|
4.07 | 4.48 | +0.41 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CLE
Score 48.9 | Lineup K 4.59
|
4.40 | 4.46 | +0.06 | 62.1% | 44.9% | 30.0% | 18.6% | 10.8% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SD
Score 39.5 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.10 | 4.31 | +0.21 | 59.7% | 42.4% | 27.7% | 16.8% | 9.5% |
Brayan Bello
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CHC
Score 35.2 | Lineup K 4.93
|
3.92 | 4.22 | +0.30 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 26.3% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
Ryan Yarbrough
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BAL
Score 32.8 | Lineup K 4.41
|
4.12 | 4.21 | +0.09 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs BOS
Score 30.2 | Lineup K 4.70
|
3.70 | 4.03 | +0.33 | 55.0% | 37.6% | 23.5% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
Jackson Jobe
Probable | projected
|
DET vs PIT
Score 20.1 | Lineup K 4.52
|
3.91 | 4.02 | +0.11 | 54.9% | 37.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs NYY
Score 23.6 | Lineup K 4.51
|
3.31 | 3.67 | +0.36 | 48.5% | 31.2% | 18.4% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs CWS
Score 31.9 | Lineup K 3.64
|
3.04 | 3.20 | +0.16 | 39.3% | 23.1% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIL
Score 25.1 | Lineup K 3.76
|
2.87 | 3.12 | +0.25 | 37.7% | 21.8% | 11.4% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.