Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Mets Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Mets

Sean Manaea

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 5", 245 lb · Age 34

Cards
18
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Mets Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241263.4732320181.21841.08
2025245.641512060.2751.22
2026674.6732180144.21411.30
11 Seasons85734.1427522811389.213251.21
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace4.74
ERA rolling p504.56
Observed weight73%
ERA
3.48 3.99 4.56 5.12 5.63
FIP
3.42 3.71 4.03 4.36 4.65
K%
21.1% 22.0% 23.1% 24.2% 25.1%
BB%
5.8% 6.4% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
59
ERA4.74
32
BB%6.7%
82
K%22.6%
53
xwOBA allowed0.335
27 -15 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.1%
7 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
7
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
25
Whiff%21.0%
36 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+97
17
Changeup Stuff+98
26
Cutter Stuff+99
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Manaea, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-09-12: 0.3402026-09-13: 0.3402026-09-14: 0.3402026-09-18: 0.3372026-09-19: 0.3372026-09-20: 0.3372026-09-21: 0.3372026-09-22: 0.3372026-09-23: 0.3352026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.335 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Manaea, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.7%Sweeper: 30.7%Sinker: 18.5%Cutter: 7.8%Changeup: 4.4% FF39% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 39%ST 31%SI 18%FC 8%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.2 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 75.7 mphST76 mphSinker: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.6 mphFC85 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.0 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.1% 604 101 qualified
SL 30.1% 477 97 qualified
SI 19.1% 303 105 qualified
FC 7.7% 122 99 limited sample
CH 4.9% 78 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age34
Height6' 5"
Weight245 lb
Debut2016-04-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.58
K% Δ-0.009

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.354
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.335

Manaea’s wOBA-against sits at 0.354, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.335 — a gap of 0.019, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 147 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching182026-09-22Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.5% K | 4.16 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs WSH4 ER / 7 K6.1 IP
2026-04-17 @ CHC5 ER / 2 K4.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs ATH0 ER / 4 K3.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs AZ2 ER / 2 K4.0 IP
2026-04-02 @ SF1 ER / 2 K3.2 IP