Mithrandir Metrics
Player NYM Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / NYM

Sean Manaea

Player profile with live context, projection links, and Mithrandir card history when available.

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club NYM Position -- Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace5.02
ERA rolling p504.53
Observed weight49%
ERA
3.55 4.02 4.53 5.04 5.51
FIP
3.10 3.36 3.66 3.96 4.22
K%
21.3% 22.8% 24.4% 26.0% 27.4%
BB%
5.9% 6.7% 7.5% 8.4% 9.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
58
ERA5.02
27
BB%7.5%
67
K%24.2%
62
xwOBA allowed0.318
47
Barrel allowed9.4%
30
Fastball velo90.2
4
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
56
Whiff%22.1%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-16
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Slider Stuff+98
26
Changeup Stuff+98
20
Cutter Stuff+99
30
Sinker Stuff+105
69
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Manaea, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.318 2026-06-05: 0.3192026-06-06: 0.3192026-06-07: 0.3192026-06-08: 0.3212026-06-09: 0.3212026-06-10: 0.3212026-06-11: 0.3212026-06-12: 0.3212026-06-13: 0.3212026-06-14: 0.3212026-06-15: 0.3182026-06-16: 0.318 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Manaea, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.3%Sweeper: 32.2%Sinker: 18.1%Cutter: 7.5%Changeup: 4.9% FF37% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 37%ST 32%SI 18%FC 7%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.2 mphFF90 mphSweeper: 32% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 74.7 mphST75 mphSinker: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.0 mphSI90 mphCutter: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.1 mphFC84 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.0 mphCH83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.2% 289 100 qualified
SL 31.4% 244 98 qualified
SI 19.7% 153 105 limited sample
FC 6.4% 50 99 limited sample
CH 5.2% 40 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.86
K% Δ+0.008

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.338
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.318

Manaea’s wOBA-against sits at 0.338, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.318 — a gap of 0.020, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 53 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-03-174-Seam Fastball played up through FF/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.5% K | 4.16 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ CHC0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-12 vs ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-08 vs AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-02 @ SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-03-29 vs PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 1 E0 H in 0 AB