Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Brandon Williamson

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 6", 210 lb · Age 28

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023554.4623230117.0981.28
2024003.7743014.1121.05
2026544.89118049.2331.41
3 Seasons1094.5238340181.01431.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal7 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace5.57
ERA rolling p504.84
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.70 4.24 4.84 5.43 5.97
FIP
3.99 4.41 4.87 5.33 5.75
K%
15.8% 17.1% 18.7% 20.2% 21.6%
BB%
7.7% 8.7% 9.7% 10.8% 11.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
44
ERA5.57
16
BB%11.6%
22 -50 vs proj
K%15.5%
9 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.365
7 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.4%
35
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
41
Whiff%20.9%
35
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Curveball Stuff+104
72
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Sinker Stuff+101
41
Slider Stuff+99
29
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williamson, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.365 2026-09-12: 0.3812026-09-13: 0.3812026-09-14: 0.3782026-09-18: 0.3772026-09-19: 0.3782026-09-20: 0.3782026-09-21: 0.3782026-09-22: 0.3782026-09-23: 0.3662026-09-24: 0.3662026-09-25: 0.3662026-09-26: 0.365 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williamson, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williamson, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 32.7%Changeup: 21.5%4-Seam Fastball: 15.9%Sweeper: 11.6%Sinker: 9.5%Curveball: 8.9% FC33% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 33%CH 21%FF 16%ST 12%SI 9%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williamson, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.5 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSinker: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 75.5 mphCU75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 33.1% 275 101 qualified
CH 21.4% 178 103 limited sample
FB 17.6% 146 94 limited sample
SL 10.8% 90 99 limited sample
CB 8.7% 72 104 limited sample
SI 8.4% 70 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 6"
Weight210 lb
Debut2023-05-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.21
K% Δ-0.052

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.390
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.365

Williamson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.390, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.365 — a gap of 0.025, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 59 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-09-22Cutter played up through CH/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 4.36 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ MIN1 ER / 2 K5.1 IP
2026-04-11 vs LAA3 ER / 3 K4.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ MIA0 ER / 4 K6.2 IP
2026-03-31 vs PIT6 ER / 3 K4.2 IP