Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs KC | 6.46 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 6.14 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PIT | 6.06 | 31.6% | 33.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs ATL | 5.94 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 5.85 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CIN | 5.51 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIN | 5.14 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs BAL | 5.11 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 1 |
Jackson Kent
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIA | 4.67 | 23.8% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYM | 4.67 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs HOU | 4.62 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs NYY | 4.36 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs TOR | 4.23 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 4.17 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs LAD | 4.14 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs SD | 4.07 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TEX | 4.06 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 4.00 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 3.94 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIL | 3.93 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TB | 3.87 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Blade Tidwell
Probable starter
|
SF vs STL | 3.47 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs ATH | 3.34 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs SF | 3.28 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs AZ | 3.20 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CHC | 3.12 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs COL | 3.11 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Braydon Fisher
Probable starter
|
TOR vs DET | 2.41 | 20.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 12.2 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.