Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TEX | 6.57 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SF | 6.27 | 29.3% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 6.26 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIA | 5.72 | 29.6% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs KC | 5.72 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 5.46 | 26.8% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 1 |
Cade Povich
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIL | 4.79 | 21.9% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 1 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs COL | 4.74 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIN | 4.70 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Daniel Espino
Probable starter
|
CLE vs ATH | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
David Sandlin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs SEA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs AZ | 4.48 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs NYY | 4.47 | 17.9% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 4 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATL | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Andrew Sears
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Cesar Perdomo
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Tim Mayza
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYM | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 4.27 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TOR | 4.23 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs PIT | 4.18 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 1 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs LAA | 4.16 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PHI | 4.11 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs HOU | 4.03 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs BAL | 3.84 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 3.70 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs WSH | 3.58 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Mason Barnett
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CLE | 3.44 | 20.0% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SD | 3.12 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs STL | 3.06 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.