Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CIN | 6.17 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs DET | 5.96 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 5.93 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 5.49 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 5 |
Corbin Burnes
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIA | 5.31 | 23.0% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 0 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs LAD | 5.19 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs NYY | 4.81 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs COL | 4.78 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIN | 4.75 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs ATL | 4.74 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs AZ | 4.73 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs SF | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kade Anderson
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs STL | 4.27 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CHC | 4.26 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Newcomb
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 4.22 | 23.5% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Jonah Tong
Probable starter
|
NYM vs BAL | 4.17 | 23.2% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs TOR | 3.95 | 22.0% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs SD | 3.42 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYM | 3.31 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.