Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Diego Padres Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Diego Padres

Griffin Canning

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 180 lb · Age 30

Cards
7
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Diego Padres Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20246135.1932310171.21301.40
2025733.771616076.1701.38
2026495.753011087.2871.54
7 Seasons36464.791451210672.06401.36
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal7 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace5.57
ERA rolling p505.01
Observed weight61%
ERA
3.89 4.42 5.01 5.60 6.12
FIP
3.83 4.20 4.62 5.04 5.42
K%
19.5% 20.7% 22.1% 23.5% 24.7%
BB%
8.2% 8.9% 9.7% 10.5% 11.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
17
ERA5.57
16
BB%10.6%
30 -24 vs proj
K%22.5%
53
xwOBA allowed0.328
31
Barrel allowed8.5%
33
Fastball velo94.4
50
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
11
Whiff%24.1%
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+104
69
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Slider Stuff+102
52
Curveball Stuff+102
43
Cutter Stuff+97
15
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Sinker Stuff+89
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Canning, Griffin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.328 2026-09-13: 0.3272026-09-14: 0.3272026-09-18: 0.3272026-09-19: 0.3272026-09-20: 0.3272026-09-21: 0.3272026-09-22: 0.3272026-09-23: 0.3282026-09-24: 0.3282026-09-25: 0.3282026-09-26: 0.3282026-09-27: 0.328 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Canning, Griffin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Canning, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 24.7%4-Seam Fastball: 24.5%Slider: 23.5%Sinker: 9.8%Knuckle Curve: 8.6%Cutter: 5.8% CH25% · 90 mphprimary pitch CH 25%FF 25%SL 24%SI 10%KC 9%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Canning, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.3 mphCH90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphSinker: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.1 mphKC82 mphCutter: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.3 mphST86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 28.1% 217 104 qualified
SL 26.5% 204 102 qualified
FB 24.3% 187 97 limited sample
SI 10.4% 80 89 limited sample
CB 6.5% 50 102 limited sample
FC 4.3% 33 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 2"
Weight180 lb
Debut2019-04-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.62
K% Δ+0.018

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.355
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.328

Canning’s wOBA-against sits at 0.355, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.328 — a gap of 0.026, 0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 83 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching72026-07-18Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 3.95 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP