Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SEA | 6.56 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 5.40 | 26.8% | 27.2% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TB | 5.19 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BOS | 4.96 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TOR | 4.94 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIN | 4.83 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs AZ | 4.75 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 4.74 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 4.70 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jose Cabrera
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CIN | 4.34 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs BAL | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAA | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Mike Paredes
Probable starter
|
MIN vs NYY | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIA | 4.23 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 4.15 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PIT | 4.15 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 3.93 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs WSH | 3.90 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.80 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs HOU | 3.47 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATH | 3.12 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 2.89 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.