Mithrandir Metrics
Player Rochester Red Wings Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Rochester Red Wings

Paxton Schultz

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 3", 205 lb · Age 28

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Rochester Red Wings Position P Roster Reassigned to Minors Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025004.38132024.2281.42
2026125.87251130.2311.63
2 Seasons125.20383155.1591.54
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.85
ERA current pace5.87
ERA rolling p505.24
Observed weight38%
ERA
4.09 4.63 5.24 5.84 6.38
FIP
3.44 3.83 4.26 4.68 5.07
K%
18.8% 20.6% 22.5% 24.4% 26.1%
BB%
5.3% 6.4% 7.5% 8.7% 9.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
8
ERA5.87
13
BB%7.6%
65
K%21.5%
43
xwOBA allowed0.335
29 -15 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
28
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
61
Whiff%18.6%
15 -43 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+93
8
Cutter Stuff+101
47
Fastball Stuff+103
58
Mithrandir Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+92
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Schultz, Paxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.335 2026-07-06: 0.3352026-07-07: 0.3352026-07-08: 0.3352026-07-09: 0.3352026-07-10: 0.3352026-07-11: 0.3352026-07-12: 0.3352026-07-13: 0.3352026-07-14: 0.3352026-07-15: 0.3352026-07-16: 0.3352026-07-17: 0.335 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Schultz, Paxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Paxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 43.1%4-Seam Fastball: 34.8%Changeup: 15.3%Slider: 6.8% FC43% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 43%FF 35%CH 15%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Paxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Cutter: 43% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphSlider: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 42.4% 163 101 limited sample
FB 35.7% 137 103 limited sample
CH 16.1% 62 93 limited sample
SL 5.7% 22 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 3"
Weight205 lb
Debut2025-04-20
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.47
K% Δ+0.002

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.376
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.335

Schultz’s wOBA-against sits at 0.376, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.335 — a gap of 0.041, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 30 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.3% K | 4.40 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 vs SF1 ER / 1 K3.0 IP
2026-04-13 @ PIT1 ER / 4 K2.2 IP
2026-04-07 vs STL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP