The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 255 qualified hitters (336+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Contreras, William in signal, the comp in amber.
MIL · bats R · 653 PA
Ranked comps for Contreras, William
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Jeffers, Ryan MIN · R · 384 PA | 0.77 | Swing lengthBat speedxwOBA on contact | Pull rate +1.1zIsolated power +0.9zWalk rate +0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Springer, George TOR · R · 534 PA | 0.76 | Walk rateFly-ball rateIn-zone contact | Pull rate +1.1zOppo rate -0.8zBarrel rate -0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Herrera, Iván STL · R · 721 PA | 0.72 | Chase rateIn-zone contactBat speed | Ground-ball rate +1.2zBarrel rate -1.2zFly-ball rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Vaughn, Andrew MIL · R · 354 PA | 0.70 | Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocitySprint speed | Oppo rate +1.5zBarrel rate -1.3zBat speed -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Machado, Manny SD · R · 686 PA | 0.70 | Sweet-spot rateGround-ball rateHard-hit rate | Swing length +1.5zStrikeout rate +1.1zIn-zone contact -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Bell, Josh MIN · L · 646 PA | 0.70 | Sprint speedIsolated powerBarrel rate | Swing length +1.6zPull rate +1.6zStrikeout rate +0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Bohm, Alec PHI · R · 649 PA | 0.68 | Avg exit velocityStrikeout rateHard-hit rate | Max exit velocity -1.2zGround-ball rate +1.1zBarrel rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Walker, Christian HOU · R · 644 PA | 0.67 | xwOBA on contactSprint speedMax exit velocity | Strikeout rate +1.5zWhiff rate +1.4zPull rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Ballesteros, Moisés CHC · L · 367 PA | 0.66 | Avg exit velocityBarrel rateHard-hit rate | Strikeout rate +1.4zChase rate +1.4zWhiff rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Sheets, Gavin SD · L · 436 PA | 0.66 | Whiff rateBat speedOppo rate | Pull rate +1.2zSwing length +1.1zAvg exit velocity -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Rutschman, Adley BAL · L · 422 PA | 0.66 | Walk ratexwOBA on contactGround-ball rate | Sweet-spot rate +2.0zFly-ball rate +0.9zBarrel rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Lowe, Nathaniel CIN · L · 442 PA | 0.65 | Max exit velocityFly-ball rateOppo rate | Sweet-spot rate +1.9zStrikeout rate +1.4zxwOBA on contact +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.