Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026

Ballesteros, Moisés

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.309 xwOBA
Range
0.222 to 0.307
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced regular Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.280
xwOBA current pace0.320
xwOBA rolling p500.297
Observed weight43%
xwOBA
0.266 0.280 0.297 0.313 0.328
wOBA
0.342 0.366 0.391 0.417 0.440
ISO
0.154 0.173 0.194 0.215 0.234
K%
15.4% 17.7% 20.2% 22.7% 25.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.9%
73
Barrel%9.1%
89 +43 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
63
Exit velocity90.8
82
Hard-hit%47.4%
82 +49 vs proj
K%20.0%
62
xBA0.312
37
xSLG0.527
55
xwOBA0.320
59
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
Limited
Catcher Throwing-0.2 · C
Limited
Framing Runs-0.0 · C
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.8 · DH
4
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.5% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.3% · rebadged research
96
Correct Decisions65.2% · rebadged research
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
72
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.301 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Ballesteros, Moisés · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3292026-05-19: 0.3292026-05-21: 0.3212026-05-23: 0.3192026-05-24: 0.3222026-05-25: 0.3312026-05-26: 0.3402026-05-28: 0.3292026-05-29: 0.3292026-05-30: 0.3242026-05-31: 0.3242026-06-01: 0.320 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Moisés Ballesteros's tools (82) outpace production (73) by 9 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-9.0° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

109 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Ballesteros, Moisés · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsPull 18%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 355 CF 400 RF 353 2026-03-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 28.02026-03-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 29.02026-03-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 30.02026-03-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 46.02026-03-20 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 8.02026-03-21 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 23.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -26.02026-03-21 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 40.02026-03-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 20.02026-03-22 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 57.02026-03-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -20.02026-03-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 69.1 / LA 37.02026-03-26 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 55.7 / LA -74.02026-03-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 39.02026-03-28 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -36.02026-03-29 · field out · CU · popup · EV 83.5 / LA 67.02026-03-29 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 19.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -50.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA -10.02026-03-30 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 5.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 65.02026-03-31 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 75.9 / LA 20.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA -24.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 31.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 44.02026-04-07 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 47.02026-04-07 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -21.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 26.02026-04-07 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 26.02026-04-08 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA -3.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · popup · EV 87.5 / LA 65.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 9.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 48.02026-04-10 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 18.02026-04-11 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 9.02026-04-11 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 7.02026-04-12 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 29.02026-04-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.2 / LA -1.02026-04-13 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.9 / LA -5.02026-04-13 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 37.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA -10.02026-04-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 11.02026-04-17 · single · FO · line_drive · EV 73.5 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 32.02026-04-18 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 16.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.1 / LA 4.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 51.02026-04-20 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 9.02026-04-22 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 7.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 79.2 / LA 31.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 1.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 38.02026-04-23 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 1.02026-04-23 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 111.4 / LA 15.02026-04-24 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 15.02026-04-24 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.5 / LA 13.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 15.02026-04-25 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 26.02026-04-25 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA 5.02026-04-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 69.3 / LA -34.02026-04-27 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 28.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 7.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 55.9 / LA -26.02026-04-28 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -6.02026-04-28 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 2.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -7.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 30.02026-04-29 · field out · KN · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 2.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 24.02026-04-29 · field out · KN · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -8.02026-04-29 · field out · KN · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 24.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA -17.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA -25.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 59.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 9.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 54.4 / LA 45.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 23.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -59.02026-05-03 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 8.02026-05-03 · home run · FC · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 29.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 17.02026-05-04 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -15.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.2 / LA -16.02026-05-05 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 55.5 / LA -75.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -1.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 23.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA -4.02026-05-07 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 26.02026-05-07 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -37.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -23.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 16.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.9 / LA 74.02026-05-12 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA -1.02026-05-12 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · popup · EV 71.7 / LA 72.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 18.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 35.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -16.02026-05-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -9.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 59.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 62.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 38.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 15.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 43.02026-05-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 7.02026-05-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 13.02026-05-26 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 63.0 / LA -51.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -12.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 73.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Ballesteros, Moisés · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 41%41%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.011
wOBA Δ+0.082
Sample165 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances236----
Home Runs8----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3090.222 to 0.307+/- 0.042
ISO0.1720.105 to 0.229+/- 0.062
Barrel%4.8%1.3% to 5.9%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%36.2%22.7% to 40.8%+/- 9.1%
K%20.5%10.3% to 25.8%+/- 7.8%
BB%9.6%4.0% to 11.6%+/- 3.8%
BABIP0.3040.245 to 0.330+/- 0.043
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

7 career PA

xwOBA0.072
K%4.8%
BB%2.9%
Barrel0.9%
vs RHP

69 career PA

xwOBA0.079
K%4.1%
BB%3.2%
Barrel1.2%