Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 31 |
| Height | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 220 lb |
| Debut | 2019-04-29 |
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians
Nathaniel Lowe
1B · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 220 lb · Age 31
Club Cleveland Guardians
Position 1B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 565 | 62 | 129 | 16 | 2 | .265 | .361 | .401 | .762 |
| 2025 | 609 | 64 | 123 | 18 | 1 | .228 | .307 | .381 | .688 |
| 2026 | 420 | 38 | 94 | 17 | 0 | .251 | .319 | .447 | .766 |
| 8 Seasons | 3850 | 436 | 890 | 124 | 15 | .262 | .344 | .427 | .771 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
77
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.335 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.332 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.307
0.319
0.332
0.345
0.356
wOBA
0.334
0.348
0.364
0.379
0.393
ISO
0.161
0.175
0.190
0.205
0.219
K%
21.5%
22.6%
23.8%
25.0%
26.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
68
Exit velocity89.5
71
Hard-hit%42.0%
68
xBA0.364
91
xSLG0.597
79
xwOBA0.335
82
+16 vs proj
BB%8.9%
56
-23 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
87
K%23.1%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
10
Range Runs-3.0 · 1B
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.1% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · borderline
16
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
2
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
48
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
207 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.046 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Lowe’s wOBA sits at 0.364, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.335 — a gap of 0.029, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 437 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bell, Josh MIN · L | 0.73 | Avg exit velocityHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Jeffers, Ryan MIN · R | 0.71 | Isolated powerChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Machado, Manny SD · R | 0.71 | Bat speedGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Dingler, Dillon DET · R | 0.71 | Swing lengthSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-04-30 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 22 | 2026-09-25 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.313 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.317 xwOBA | 16 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR | 3 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2 2B, 2 K, 3 RBI |
| 2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-04-12 vs LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | 3 BB, K |
| 2026-04-11 vs LAA0 HR | 3 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K, 3 RBI |