Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Vaughn, Andrew
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.321 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.354 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.331 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.315
0.331
0.347
0.361
wOBA
0.480
0.512
0.547
0.582
0.614
ISO
0.115
0.134
0.156
0.177
0.196
K%
15.4%
17.0%
18.7%
20.5%
22.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
37
Barrel%4.4%
41
-23 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
10
Exit velocity89.6
63
Hard-hit%41.2%
55
-15 vs proj
K%13.2%
91
+31 vs proj
xBA0.350
75
xSLG0.467
35
xwOBA0.354
82
+20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.5 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.5 · 1B
11
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.2% · rebadged research
90
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions70.6% · rebadged research
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.387 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
63 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.223 |
| Sample | 91 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 513 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.299 to 0.364 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.120 to 0.226 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 6.1% | 4.9% to 8.9% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.8% | 40.7% to 51.8% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 20.3% | 16.5% to 25.2% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 5.2% to 9.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.242 to 0.329 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
741 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 13.7% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
2116 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |