Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Soderstrom, Tyler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
71
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.342 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.318
0.330
0.342
0.355
0.366
wOBA
0.346
0.362
0.379
0.396
0.412
ISO
0.182
0.196
0.211
0.226
0.240
K%
16.8%
18.0%
19.3%
20.6%
21.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
78
Exit velocity90.2
76
Hard-hit%45.3%
77
xBA0.323
52
xSLG0.542
61
xwOBA0.343
81
BB%12.8%
88
+34 vs proj
Bat speed72.6
84
K%17.5%
77
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · LF
89
Arm Strength96.0 · LF
73
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
2
Range Runs-4.3 · LF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · LF
30
Sprint Speed27.2 · LF
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.7% · rebadged research
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions70.2% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
24
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328 · validated
96
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.049 |
| Sample | 360 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 544 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.312 to 0.381 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.172 | 0.131 to 0.250 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.0% to 9.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.9% | 44.0% to 54.0% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 21.9% | 16.9% to 27.3% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 7.1% to 12.5% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.239 to 0.336 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
197 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
828 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |