Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-24 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-24

74 matched props 30 unmatched

Newer: 2026-05-25 Older: 2026-05-23

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 74

Grouped Pitchers 19

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 30

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-24 | Raw sportsbook rows: 74 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-24/strikeout_edges_2026-05-24.json

Matthew Liberatore

STL vs CIN | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 3.76

Strongest Gap Under +22.12%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -150 / U +122

Over gap -27.17% / Under gap +22.12%

Under +22.12%

DraftKings

4.5

O -148 / U +116

Over gap -26.85% / Under gap +20.87%

Under +20.87%

Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 30.4

Dylan Cease

TOR vs PIT | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 6.89

Strongest Gap Under +16.76%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O -152 / U +124

Over gap -21.72% / Under gap +16.76%

Under +16.76%

FanDuel

7.5

O -148 / U +120

Over gap -21.08% / Under gap +15.95%

Under +15.95%

DraftKings

8.5

O +114 / U -145

Over gap -18.88% / Under gap +12.97%

Under +12.97%

BetMGM

7.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -19.73% / Under gap +12.62%

Under +12.62%

Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 73.9

Shota Imanaga

CHC vs HOU | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 5.11

Strongest Gap Under +15.77%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -154 / U +126

Over gap -20.65% / Under gap +15.77%

Under +15.77%

FanDuel

5.5

O -154 / U +126

Over gap -20.65% / Under gap +15.77%

Under +15.77%

BetMGM

6.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -21.77% / Under gap +14.66%

Under +14.66%

DraftKings

5.5

O -153 / U +120

Over gap -20.49% / Under gap +14.57%

Under +14.57%

Model O 40.0% | U 60.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.4

Drew Rasmussen

TB vs NYY | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 4.19

Strongest Gap Under +15.10%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +113 / U -144

Over gap -21.07% / Under gap +15.10%

Under +15.10%

BetMGM

5.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -21.74% / Under gap +14.12%

Under +14.12%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -154

Over gap -20.42% / Under gap +13.49%

Under +13.49%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -154

Over gap -20.42% / Under gap +13.49%

Under +13.49%

Model O 25.9% | U 74.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 50.0

Ryan Weathers

NYY vs TB | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 4.85

Strongest Gap Under +12.79%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -19.57% / Under gap +12.79%

Under +12.79%

DraftKings

5.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -18.14% / Under gap +12.09%

Under +12.09%

FanDuel

5.5

O -108 / U -112

Over gap -15.93% / Under gap +11.18%

Under +11.18%

FanDuel

5.5

O -108 / U -112

Over gap -15.93% / Under gap +11.18%

Under +11.18%

Model O 36.0% | U 64.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.7

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD vs MIL | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 5.57

Strongest Gap Under +11.13%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -17.91% / Under gap +11.13%

Under +11.13%

FanDuel

6.5

O -104 / U -128

Over gap -17.67% / Under gap +10.55%

Under +10.55%

FanDuel

6.5

O -104 / U -128

Over gap -17.67% / Under gap +10.55%

Under +10.55%

DraftKings

6.5

O +101 / U -129

Over gap -16.44% / Under gap +10.36%

Under +10.36%

Model O 33.3% | U 66.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.7

Robbie Ray

SF vs CWS | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 5.47

Strongest Gap Under +9.17%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -148 / U +120

Over gap -14.30% / Under gap +9.17%

Under +9.17%

FanDuel

5.5

O -148 / U +120

Over gap -14.30% / Under gap +9.17%

Under +9.17%

DraftKings

6.5

O +124 / U -158

Over gap -12.71% / Under gap +6.83%

Under +6.83%

BetMGM

6.5

O +130 / U -175

Over gap -11.55% / Under gap +4.43%

Under +4.43%

Model O 45.4% | U 54.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.2

Brandon Young

BAL vs DET | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 3.83

Strongest Gap Under +8.49%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -15.94% / Under gap +8.49%

Under +8.49%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -144

Over gap -11.81% / Under gap +6.92%

Under +6.92%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -144

Over gap -11.81% / Under gap +6.92%

Under +6.92%

DraftKings

4.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -12.24% / Under gap +6.26%

Under +6.26%

Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 32.3

Ryne Nelson

AZ vs COL | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 4.66

Strongest Gap Under +8.28%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -160 / U +130

Over gap -13.30% / Under gap +8.28%

Under +8.28%

FanDuel

4.5

O -160 / U +130

Over gap -13.30% / Under gap +8.28%

Under +8.28%

DraftKings

4.5

O -160 / U +125

Over gap -13.30% / Under gap +7.32%

Under +7.32%

BetMGM

4.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -13.30% / Under gap +6.31%

Under +6.31%

Model O 48.2% | U 51.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.3

Michael King

SD vs ATH | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 5.60

Strongest Gap Under +7.67%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -148 / U +122

Over gap -12.40% / Under gap +7.67%

Under +7.67%

FanDuel

5.5

O -148 / U +122

Over gap -12.40% / Under gap +7.67%

Under +7.67%

DraftKings

6.5

O +124 / U -158

Over gap -10.91% / Under gap +5.03%

Under +5.03%

BetMGM

6.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -11.72% / Under gap +4.73%

Under +4.73%

Model O 47.3% | U 52.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.9

Bryan Woo

SEA vs KC | 4 books

Play

Adj K 4.88

Strongest Gap Under +3.81%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -165 / U +125

Over gap -10.51% / Under gap +3.81%

Under +3.81%

DraftKings

5.5

O +118 / U -153

Over gap -9.41% / Under gap +3.07%

Under +3.07%

FanDuel

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -8.99% / Under gap +2.00%

Under +2.00%

FanDuel

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -8.99% / Under gap +2.00%

Under +2.00%

Model O 51.7% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 59.5

Jose Quintana

COL vs AZ | 4 books

Lean

Adj K 2.91

Strongest Gap Over +2.21%

Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

2.5

O -107 / U -119

Over gap +2.21% / Under gap -8.24%

Over +2.21%

BetMGM

2.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap +1.52% / Under gap -8.45%

Over +1.52%

FanDuel

2.5

O -118 / U -112

Over gap -0.23% / Under gap -6.73%

No Play

FanDuel

2.5

O -118 / U -112

Over gap -0.23% / Under gap -6.73%

No Play

Model O 53.9% | U 46.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.7

Brady Singer

CIN vs STL | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 4.72

Strongest Gap No Play +1.13%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +108 / U -132

Over gap +1.13% / Under gap -6.11%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +108 / U -132

Over gap +1.13% / Under gap -6.11%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O +107 / U -136

Over gap +0.90% / Under gap -6.84%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -2.01% / Under gap -4.77%

No Play

Model O 49.2% | U 50.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.2

MacKenzie Gore

TEX vs LAA | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 6.01

Strongest Gap No Play +0.63%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -149 / U +116

Over gap -6.77% / Under gap +0.63%

No Play

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -7.14% / Under gap -0.15%

No Play

FanDuel

6.5

O +124 / U -166

Over gap -5.27% / Under gap -1.78%

No Play

FanDuel

6.5

O +124 / U -166

Over gap -5.27% / Under gap -1.78%

No Play

Model O 53.1% | U 46.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.9

Framber Valdez

DET vs BAL | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 5.15

Strongest Gap No Play +0.56%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +112 / U -143

Over gap -6.58% / Under gap +0.56%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -145

Over gap -8.19% / Under gap +0.23%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +110 / U -146

Over gap -7.03% / Under gap +0.06%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +110 / U -146

Over gap -7.03% / Under gap +0.06%

No Play

Model O 40.6% | U 59.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 56.6

Sonny Gray

BOS vs MIN | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 5.38

Strongest Gap No Play -0.19%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +104 / U -128

Over gap -4.97% / Under gap -0.19%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +104 / U -128

Over gap -4.97% / Under gap -0.19%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +101 / U -129

Over gap -5.70% / Under gap -0.38%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -4.73% / Under gap -2.38%

No Play

Model O 44.0% | U 56.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.7

Seth Lugo

KC vs SEA | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 5.20

Strongest Gap No Play -1.66%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -150 / U +122

Over gap -3.39% / Under gap -1.66%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -150 / U +122

Over gap -3.39% / Under gap -1.66%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -154 / U +122

Over gap -4.02% / Under gap -1.66%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -3.39% / Under gap -4.23%

No Play

Model O 56.6% | U 43.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 45.3

Mitch Keller

PIT vs TOR | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 4.25

Strongest Gap No Play -2.03%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -167 / U +131

Over gap -3.81% / Under gap -2.03%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +130 / U -174

Over gap -2.11% / Under gap -4.87%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +130 / U -174

Over gap -2.11% / Under gap -4.87%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +125 / U -165

Over gap -3.07% / Under gap -3.63%

No Play

Model O 58.7% | U 41.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 49.0

Bailey Ober

MIN vs BOS | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 4.46

Strongest Gap No Play -2.69%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +110 / U -146

Over gap -2.69% / Under gap -4.28%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +110 / U -146

Over gap -2.69% / Under gap -4.28%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -2.69% / Under gap -4.93%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -3.15% / Under gap -2.91%

No Play

Model O 44.9% | U 55.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 51.5

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.