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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-31 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-31
190 matched props 67 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-01 Older: 2026-05-30

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 190
Grouped Pitchers 23
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 67
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-31 | Raw sportsbook rows: 190 | Grouped pitcher entries: 23 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-31/strikeout_edges_2026-05-31.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs HOU | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.82
Strongest Gap Under +30.65%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -37.61% / Under gap +30.65%
Under +30.65%
FanDuel
8.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -37.61% / Under gap +30.65%
Under +30.65%
DraftKings
8.5
O -106 / U -121
Over gap -34.94% / Under gap +28.73%
Under +28.73%
BetMGM
8.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -34.70% / Under gap +27.92%
Under +27.92%
FanDuel
2.5
O -470 / U --
Over gap +7.13% / Under gap --
Over +7.13%
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap +1.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -11.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -23.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -34.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -192 / U --
Over gap -40.45% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.5% | U 83.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.5
Spencer Strider headshot

Spencer Strider
ATL vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.55
Strongest Gap Under +20.45%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -27.74% / Under gap +20.45%
Under +20.45%
DraftKings
6.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -23.86% / Under gap +17.94%
Under +17.94%
FanDuel
6.5
O -122 / U -108
Over gap -21.91% / Under gap +15.04%
Under +15.04%
FanDuel
6.5
O -122 / U -108
Over gap -21.91% / Under gap +15.04%
Under +15.04%
FanDuel
8.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -9.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -15.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -18.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -23.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -25.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.0% | U 67.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.5
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs DET | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.21
Strongest Gap Under +19.27%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -26.20% / Under gap +19.27%
Under +19.27%
DraftKings
5.5
O +103 / U -132
Over gap -23.08% / Under gap +16.92%
Under +16.92%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap -21.44% / Under gap +16.56%
Under +16.56%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap -21.44% / Under gap +16.56%
Under +16.56%
FanDuel
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -9.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -15.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -21.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -600 / U --
Over gap -27.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -29.02% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.2% | U 73.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.7
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs CHC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.70
Strongest Gap Under +16.08%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -117 / U -109
Over gap -22.15% / Under gap +16.08%
Under +16.08%
FanDuel
4.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -20.61% / Under gap +15.85%
Under +15.85%
FanDuel
4.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -20.61% / Under gap +15.85%
Under +15.85%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -17.01% / Under gap +9.90%
Under +9.90%
FanDuel
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap -8.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -11.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -17.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -22.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -27.11% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.0
Jacob Lopez headshot

Jacob Lopez
ATH vs NYY | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap Over +15.56%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +15.56% / Under gap --
Over +15.56%
FanDuel
4.5
O +148 / U --
Over gap +14.36% / Under gap --
Over +14.36%
FanDuel
6.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +13.65% / Under gap --
Over +13.65%
FanDuel
3.5
O -144 / U +118
Over gap +11.56% / Under gap -16.45%
Over +11.56%
DraftKings
3.5
O -144 / U +113
Over gap +11.56% / Under gap -17.53%
Over +11.56%
FanDuel
3.5
O -154 / U +118
Over gap +9.95% / Under gap -16.45%
Over +9.95%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +9.23% / Under gap -16.22%
Over +9.23%
FanDuel
2.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap +2.66% / Under gap --
Over +2.66%
Model O 39.4% | U 60.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.4
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs SEA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.44
Strongest Gap Under +11.54%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -172 / U +128
Over gap -18.64% / Under gap +11.54%
Under +11.54%
FanDuel
4.5
O -172 / U +128
Over gap -18.64% / Under gap +11.54%
Under +11.54%
DraftKings
4.5
O -159 / U +124
Over gap -16.79% / Under gap +10.76%
Under +10.76%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -12.85% / Under gap +5.40%
Under +5.40%
FanDuel
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap -2.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -6.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +140 / U --
Over gap -11.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -15.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -19.01% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 44.6% | U 55.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.3
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs CWS | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.29
Strongest Gap Under +10.10%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -17.21% / Under gap +10.10%
Under +10.10%
DraftKings
3.5
O -116 / U -110
Over gap -12.58% / Under gap +6.50%
Under +6.50%
FanDuel
3.5
O -122 / U -110
Over gap -13.83% / Under gap +6.50%
Under +6.50%
FanDuel
3.5
O -122 / U -110
Over gap -13.83% / Under gap +6.50%
Under +6.50%
FanDuel
5.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -5.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +198 / U --
Over gap -8.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -14.74% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.1% | U 58.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.0
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs NYM | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.23
Strongest Gap Under +10.09%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -17.54% / Under gap +10.09%
Under +10.09%
DraftKings
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -12.70% / Under gap +6.60%
Under +6.60%
FanDuel
3.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -12.01% / Under gap +5.14%
Under +5.14%
FanDuel
3.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -12.01% / Under gap +5.14%
Under +5.14%
FanDuel
5.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -4.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -7.15% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -300 / U --
Over gap -14.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.9% | U 60.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.9
Griffin Canning headshot

Griffin Canning
SD vs WSH | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.83
Strongest Gap Under +9.99%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -16.19% / Under gap +9.99%
Under +9.99%
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -130
Over gap -16.44% / Under gap +9.42%
Under +9.42%
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -130
Over gap -16.44% / Under gap +9.42%
Under +9.42%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -14.72% / Under gap +7.61%
Under +7.61%
FanDuel
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -6.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -10.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -17.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -19.53% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.9
Jack Leiter headshot

Jack Leiter
TEX vs KC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.87
Strongest Gap Under +9.15%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -16.08% / Under gap +9.15%
Under +9.15%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap -11.32% / Under gap +6.44%
Under +6.44%
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -11.78% / Under gap +5.72%
Under +5.72%
DraftKings
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -9.57% / Under gap +3.70%
Under +3.70%
FanDuel
7.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -2.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -6.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -12.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -16.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -16.65% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.3% | U 63.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.8
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs ATL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.35
Strongest Gap Under +8.78%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +8.78%
Under +8.78%
FanDuel
5.5
O -138 / U +110
Over gap -14.38% / Under gap +8.78%
Under +8.78%
DraftKings
5.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -11.96% / Under gap +5.90%
Under +5.90%
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -9.89% / Under gap +2.91%
Under +2.91%
FanDuel
8.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap -1.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -4.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -8.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -11.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -16.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -17.96% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.6% | U 56.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.5
Zack Littell headshot

Zack Littell
WSH vs SD | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 4.02
Strongest Gap Over +8.64%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +8.64% / Under gap --
Over +8.64%
FanDuel
4.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +7.98% / Under gap --
Over +7.98%
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -128
Over gap +5.36% / Under gap -11.00%
Over +5.36%
FanDuel
2.5
O -275 / U --
Over gap -0.16% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.4% | U 76.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.8
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.80
Strongest Gap Over +8.11%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap +8.11% / Under gap --
Over +8.11%
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap +5.72% / Under gap --
Over +5.72%
DraftKings
5.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap +3.42% / Under gap -9.33%
Over +3.42%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap +2.53% / Under gap -7.41%
Over +2.53%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap +2.53% / Under gap -7.41%
Over +2.53%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap +1.37% / Under gap -9.33%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -4.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -6.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -6.70% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.1% | U 74.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.5
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs TEX | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.58
Strongest Gap Under +8.02%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -162 / U +122
Over gap -14.90% / Under gap +8.02%
Under +8.02%
FanDuel
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -14.61% / Under gap +7.62%
Under +7.62%
DraftKings
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -12.75% / Under gap +6.77%
Under +6.77%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -10.52% / Under gap +3.07%
Under +3.07%
FanDuel
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -1.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -4.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +142 / U --
Over gap -9.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -13.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -16.12% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.9% | U 53.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.1
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SF vs COL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.64
Strongest Gap Over +7.02%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +7.02% / Under gap --
Over +7.02%
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +4.87% / Under gap --
Over +4.87%
DraftKings
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +2.81% / Under gap -8.80%
Over +2.81%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap +1.56% / Under gap -8.49%
Over +1.56%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap +1.56% / Under gap -8.49%
Over +1.56%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -3.36% / Under gap -3.42%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -4.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -6.31% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -6.70% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.2% | U 76.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.0
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs CLE | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.60
Strongest Gap Under +6.44%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -158 / U +116
Over gap -13.98% / Under gap +6.44%
Under +6.44%
FanDuel
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -0.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -3.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -7.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -13.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -15.83% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.3% | U 52.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.9
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs BOS | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.19
Strongest Gap Over +4.51%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +4.51% / Under gap --
Over +4.51%
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +4.29% / Under gap --
Over +4.29%
FanDuel
5.5
O +152 / U --
Over gap +1.51% / Under gap --
Over +1.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O -144 / U +118
Over gap -2.55% / Under gap -2.34%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +118
Over gap -4.16% / Under gap -2.34%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -2.67% / Under gap -3.31%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -3.53% / Under gap -4.09%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -7.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -7.95% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.0% | U 82.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.9
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs PIT | 9 books
Play
Adj K 4.85
Strongest Gap Under +4.17%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +117 / U -149
Over gap -10.09% / Under gap +4.17%
Under +4.17%
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap -10.74% / Under gap +3.69%
Under +3.69%
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap -10.74% / Under gap +3.69%
Under +3.69%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -10.26% / Under gap +3.27%
Under +3.27%
FanDuel
7.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -2.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -6.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -12.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -198 / U --
Over gap -15.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -15.34% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.0% | U 64.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.4
Tanner Gordon headshot

Tanner Gordon
COL vs SF | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.89
Strongest Gap Over +3.92%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +3.92% / Under gap --
Over +3.92%
FanDuel
4.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +3.86% / Under gap --
Over +3.86%
FanDuel
3.5
O -105 / U -115
Over gap +1.34% / Under gap -6.05%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -108 / U -115
Over gap +0.64% / Under gap -6.05%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +170 / U -235
Over gap -1.93% / Under gap -5.26%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -275 / U --
Over gap -1.99% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -2.39% / Under gap -3.54%
No Play
Model O 21.5% | U 78.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.7
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs ATH | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap Under +3.18%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -10.63% / Under gap +3.18%
Under +3.18%
DraftKings
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -7.36% / Under gap +1.28%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +0.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -166
Over gap -5.27% / Under gap -1.78%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -166
Over gap -5.27% / Under gap -1.78%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -3.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -10.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -12.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -12.75% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.4% | U 60.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.3
Jack Kochanowicz headshot

Jack Kochanowicz
LAA vs TB | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.49
Strongest Gap Over +2.24%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +2.24% / Under gap --
Over +2.24%
FanDuel
4.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap +0.70% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +115 / U --
Over gap -1.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -2.55% / Under gap -4.42%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -2.55% / Under gap -4.42%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +107 / U -136
Over gap -3.24% / Under gap -2.70%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -6.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.9% | U 84.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.8
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs PHI | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 6.05
Strongest Gap Over +1.85%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap +1.85% / Under gap --
Over +1.85%
DraftKings
5.5
O -158 / U +123
Over gap -7.63% / Under gap +1.55%
Under +1.55%
FanDuel
6.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap -6.38% / Under gap +1.40%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap -6.38% / Under gap +1.40%
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -6.59% / Under gap -0.70%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -2.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -12.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -13.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap -13.95% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.8% | U 81.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.5
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs AZ | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap Over +1.64%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap +1.64% / Under gap --
Over +1.64%
FanDuel
3.5
O -192 / U +154
Over gap -5.72% / Under gap +0.60%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -192 / U +154
Over gap -5.72% / Under gap +0.60%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap +0.22% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +133 / U -170
Over gap -0.18% / Under gap -5.70%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -4.88% / Under gap -2.74%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U --
Over gap -3.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -7.50% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.0% | U 83.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.