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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-29 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-29
117 matched props 31 unmatched
Newer: 2026-05-30 Older: 2026-05-28

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 117
Grouped Pitchers 21
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 31
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-29 | Raw sportsbook rows: 117 | Grouped pitcher entries: 21 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-29/strikeout_edges_2026-05-29.json
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.83
Strongest Gap Over +18.25%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap +18.25% / Under gap -24.22%
Over +18.25%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap +16.66% / Under gap -23.53%
Over +16.66%
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +15.20% / Under gap -22.65%
Over +15.20%
Model O 65.2% | U 34.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.9
Max Meyer headshot

Max Meyer
MIA vs NYM | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.66
Strongest Gap Under +18.16%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -26.12% / Under gap +18.16%
Under +18.16%
DraftKings
5.5
O -127 / U -101
Over gap -22.89% / Under gap +16.69%
Under +16.69%
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -21.07% / Under gap +14.11%
Under +14.11%
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -21.07% / Under gap +14.11%
Under +14.11%
FanDuel
7.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap -7.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +188 / U --
Over gap -13.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -15.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -21.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -23.98% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.1% | U 66.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.6
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs CIN | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.00
Strongest Gap Under +12.92%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -20.03% / Under gap +12.92%
Under +12.92%
DraftKings
5.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -14.53% / Under gap +8.43%
Under +8.43%
FanDuel
5.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -13.62% / Under gap +6.75%
Under +6.75%
FanDuel
5.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -13.62% / Under gap +6.75%
Under +6.75%
FanDuel
8.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap -5.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -7.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -9.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +178 / U --
Over gap -10.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -470 / U --
Over gap -12.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -15.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.1
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs PIT | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.18
Strongest Gap Under +12.88%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -149 / U +117
Over gap -18.80% / Under gap +12.88%
Under +12.88%
FanDuel
5.5
O -146 / U +110
Over gap -18.31% / Under gap +11.34%
Under +11.34%
FanDuel
5.5
O -146 / U +110
Over gap -18.31% / Under gap +11.34%
Under +11.34%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -18.96% / Under gap +11.34%
Under +11.34%
FanDuel
8.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -3.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -8.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap -14.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -19.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -21.94% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.2
Zac Gallen headshot

Zac Gallen
AZ vs SEA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap Under +12.82%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -160 / U +125
Over gap -18.80% / Under gap +12.82%
Under +12.82%
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -18.04% / Under gap +10.75%
Under +10.75%
FanDuel
4.5
O -140 / U +114
Over gap -15.59% / Under gap +10.53%
Under +10.53%
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.4
Luis Severino headshot

Luis Severino
ATH vs NYY | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.90
Strongest Gap Under +8.08%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -104 / U -123
Over gap -14.22% / Under gap +8.08%
Under +8.08%
FanDuel
5.5
O +104 / U -128
Over gap -12.26% / Under gap +7.10%
Under +7.10%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -130
Over gap -14.46% / Under gap +6.72%
Under +6.72%
Model O 36.8% | U 63.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.6
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.66
Strongest Gap Over +6.40%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +140 / U -172
Over gap +6.40% / Under gap -11.31%
Over +6.40%
DraftKings
5.5
O -142 / U +113
Over gap +2.76% / Under gap -8.39%
Over +2.76%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap +0.66% / Under gap -7.95%
No Play
Model O 48.1% | U 51.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 71.1
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs TOR | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.72
Strongest Gap Over +5.73%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +5.73% / Under gap --
Over +5.73%
FanDuel
5.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap +4.14% / Under gap --
Over +4.14%
DraftKings
4.5
O +116 / U -149
Over gap +2.91% / Under gap -9.05%
Over +2.91%
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap +1.59% / Under gap -6.47%
Over +1.59%
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap +1.59% / Under gap -6.47%
Over +1.59%
FanDuel
3.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -4.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -5.68% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.9% | U 78.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.7
Lucas Giolito headshot

Lucas Giolito
SD vs WSH | 4 books
Play
Adj K 4.13
Strongest Gap Over +4.98%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +4.98% / Under gap --
Over +4.98%
FanDuel
4.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap +3.84% / Under gap --
Over +3.84%
FanDuel
3.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap +0.22% / Under gap -7.24%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -2.63% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.0% | U 75.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.6
Erick Fedde headshot

Erick Fedde
CWS vs DET | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.95
Strongest Gap Over +4.61%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +104 / U -128
Over gap +4.61% / Under gap -9.77%
Over +4.61%
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -128
Over gap +4.13% / Under gap -9.77%
Over +4.13%
FanDuel
5.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +3.46% / Under gap --
Over +3.46%
FanDuel
4.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +2.83% / Under gap --
Over +2.83%
DraftKings
3.5
O -105 / U -121
Over gap +2.41% / Under gap -8.38%
Over +2.41%
BetMGM
3.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +0.14% / Under gap -7.12%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -1.48% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 53.6% | U 46.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.4
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs CHC | 5 books
Play
Adj K 3.53
Strongest Gap Under +4.16%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -122 / U +100
Over gap -9.11% / Under gap +4.16%
Under +4.16%
FanDuel
5.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap -3.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -7.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -122 / U --
Over gap -9.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -355 / U --
Over gap -12.32% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.7
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs SF | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.22
Strongest Gap Over +3.70%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -102
Over gap +3.70% / Under gap -8.75%
Over +3.70%
BetMGM
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap +2.69% / Under gap -9.47%
Over +2.69%
DraftKings
3.5
O -131 / U +103
Over gap +1.54% / Under gap -7.51%
Over +1.54%
Model O 58.2% | U 41.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.0
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs STL | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap Under +3.18%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -9.17% / Under gap +3.18%
Under +3.18%
FanDuel
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +0.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -6.93% / Under gap +0.00%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -6.93% / Under gap +0.00%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -6.10% / Under gap -1.19%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -2.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -10.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -11.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -12.75% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.4% | U 60.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.5
Carlos Rodón headshot

Carlos Rodón
NYY vs ATH | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.86
Strongest Gap Under +3.01%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +120 / U -148
Over gap -8.14% / Under gap +3.01%
Under +3.01%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -9.79% / Under gap +2.50%
Under +2.50%
DraftKings
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -8.14% / Under gap +2.06%
Under +2.06%
Model O 37.3% | U 62.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.4
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs MIA | 10 books
Lean
Adj K 6.10
Strongest Gap Over +2.80%
Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
2.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap +2.80% / Under gap --
Over +2.80%
FanDuel
5.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -5.71% / Under gap +0.66%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -5.71% / Under gap +0.66%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -155 / U +122
Over gap -6.49% / Under gap +0.66%
No Play
FanDuel
8.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +0.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -1.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -1.78% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -5.71% / Under gap -1.91%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +124 / U --
Over gap -4.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -5.90% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 91.0% | U 9.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.5
Chris Paddack headshot

Chris Paddack
CIN vs ATL | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 3.87
Strongest Gap Over +2.30%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +2.30% / Under gap --
Over +2.30%
FanDuel
4.5
O +194 / U --
Over gap +0.75% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -122 / U -105
Over gap -2.75% / Under gap -3.42%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -5.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.2% | U 78.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.8
Slade Cecconi headshot

Slade Cecconi
CLE vs BOS | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.21
Strongest Gap Under +1.87%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -9.32% / Under gap +1.87%
Under +1.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -140
Over gap -6.05% / Under gap +0.99%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -6.94% / Under gap +0.99%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap +0.23% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +116 / U -149
Over gap -5.62% / Under gap -0.52%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -3.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -11.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -11.62% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.7% | U 59.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.5
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs AZ | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.40
Strongest Gap Under +1.74%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -109 / U -117
Over gap -7.81% / Under gap +1.74%
Under +1.74%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -124
Over gap -5.16% / Under gap +0.30%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -2.17% / Under gap -5.12%
No Play
Model O 44.3% | U 55.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.6
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs LAA | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 4.28
Strongest Gap No Play +0.14%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +112 / U -138
Over gap -5.29% / Under gap +0.14%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -6.20% / Under gap +0.14%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -6.90% / Under gap -0.21%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +111 / U -142
Over gap -5.51% / Under gap -0.56%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -2.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -3.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -6.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -9.02% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.9% | U 58.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.8
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs KC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.76
Strongest Gap No Play -0.80%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -5.98% / Under gap -0.80%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -120
Over gap -0.92% / Under gap -4.13%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -3.91% / Under gap -2.19%
No Play
Model O 49.6% | U 50.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.6
Stephen Kolek headshot

Stephen Kolek
KC vs TEX | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.92
Strongest Gap No Play -1.45%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -1.45% / Under gap -5.48%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -4.53% / Under gap -1.64%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -4.88% / Under gap -2.12%
No Play
Model O 53.1% | U 46.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.