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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-30 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-30
116 matched props 92 unmatched
Newer: 2026-05-31 Older: 2026-05-29

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 116
Grouped Pitchers 18
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 92
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-30 | Raw sportsbook rows: 116 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-30/strikeout_edges_2026-05-30.json
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs LAA | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 4.58
Strongest Gap Under +21.44%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -145 / U +114
Over gap -27.35% / Under gap +21.44%
Under +21.44%
FanDuel
5.5
O -122 / U +100
Over gap -23.12% / Under gap +18.17%
Under +18.17%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +100
Over gap -24.69% / Under gap +18.17%
Under +18.17%
BetMGM
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -25.62% / Under gap +18.17%
Under +18.17%
FanDuel
8.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap -6.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -11.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -17.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -18.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -27.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -30.34% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.4
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.88
Strongest Gap Under +17.24%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -142 / U +116
Over gap -22.22% / Under gap +17.24%
Under +17.24%
DraftKings
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -22.89% / Under gap +16.81%
Under +16.81%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -23.54% / Under gap +15.92%
Under +15.92%
Model O 36.5% | U 63.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.6
Ryne Nelson headshot

Ryne Nelson
AZ vs SEA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.19
Strongest Gap Under +17.22%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +103 / U -132
Over gap -23.38% / Under gap +17.22%
Under +17.22%
BetMGM
4.5
O -175 / U +130
Over gap -23.30% / Under gap +16.18%
Under +16.18%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap -20.42% / Under gap +15.44%
Under +15.44%
Model O 25.9% | U 74.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.9
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.09
Strongest Gap Under +8.87%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -114 / U -106
Over gap -13.60% / Under gap +8.87%
Under +8.87%
DraftKings
5.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap -12.71% / Under gap +6.63%
Under +6.63%
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -12.71% / Under gap +5.78%
Under +5.78%
Model O 39.7% | U 60.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.5
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs PIT | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.44
Strongest Gap Over +7.46%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +7.46% / Under gap --
Over +7.46%
FanDuel
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +6.58% / Under gap --
Over +6.58%
FanDuel
4.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +5.23% / Under gap --
Over +5.23%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap +0.98% / Under gap -8.27%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap +0.52% / Under gap -7.63%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap +0.52% / Under gap -7.63%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -161 / U +126
Over gap +0.07% / Under gap -6.01%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -3.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.7% | U 70.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.7
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.05
Strongest Gap Over +6.84%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap +6.84% / Under gap -12.83%
Over +6.84%
FanDuel
3.5
O +104 / U -128
Over gap +6.36% / Under gap -11.52%
Over +6.36%
BetMGM
3.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +5.38% / Under gap -12.83%
Over +5.38%
Model O 55.4% | U 44.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.6
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs WSH | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.97
Strongest Gap Under +6.21%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -12.41% / Under gap +6.21%
Under +6.21%
FanDuel
5.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -10.70% / Under gap +3.83%
Under +3.83%
FanDuel
5.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -10.70% / Under gap +3.83%
Under +3.83%
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -9.78% / Under gap +2.16%
Under +2.16%
FanDuel
7.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -3.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -5.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -11.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -15.99% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.8% | U 62.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.9
Adrian Houser headshot

Adrian Houser
SF vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.82
Strongest Gap Over +5.43%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap +5.43% / Under gap -11.46%
Over +5.43%
FanDuel
3.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap +3.68% / Under gap -8.56%
Over +3.68%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +0.08% / Under gap -6.86%
No Play
Model O 51.3% | U 48.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.2
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs TEX | 9 books
Play
Adj K 4.83
Strongest Gap Under +4.59%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -159 / U +125
Over gap -10.42% / Under gap +4.59%
Under +4.59%
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -10.27% / Under gap +3.16%
Under +3.16%
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -10.27% / Under gap +3.16%
Under +3.16%
FanDuel
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +0.74% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -6.48% / Under gap -0.97%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap -1.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +152 / U --
Over gap -3.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -11.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -12.57% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 51.0% | U 49.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.6
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs TOR | 8 books
Play
Adj K 3.65
Strongest Gap Under +4.24%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -11.86% / Under gap +4.24%
Under +4.24%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +108
Over gap -8.76% / Under gap +3.78%
Under +3.78%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +108
Over gap -8.76% / Under gap +3.78%
Under +3.78%
DraftKings
3.5
O -135 / U +106
Over gap -9.31% / Under gap +3.32%
Under +3.32%
FanDuel
6.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -4.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -270 / U --
Over gap -5.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap -7.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +144 / U --
Over gap -10.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 48.1% | U 51.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.9
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs ATL | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.57
Strongest Gap Over +3.82%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +3.82% / Under gap --
Over +3.82%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -154
Over gap +2.51% / Under gap -7.39%
Over +2.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -154
Over gap +2.51% / Under gap -7.39%
Over +2.51%
DraftKings
4.5
O +125 / U -160
Over gap +2.32% / Under gap -8.30%
Over +2.32%
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +2.27% / Under gap --
Over +2.27%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap +0.25% / Under gap -7.54%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -5.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -600 / U --
Over gap -5.91% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.0% | U 80.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.0
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs CWS | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.15
Strongest Gap Under +2.51%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -132
Over gap -9.41% / Under gap +2.51%
Under +2.51%
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -132
Over gap -9.41% / Under gap +2.51%
Under +2.51%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -8.19% / Under gap +1.08%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +110 / U -141
Over gap -7.03% / Under gap +0.90%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -1.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -4.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -11.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -15.56% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.6% | U 59.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.7
Mitch Keller headshot

Mitch Keller
PIT vs MIN | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.73
Strongest Gap Over +1.99%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +1.99% / Under gap --
Over +1.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O +194 / U --
Over gap +0.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -105
Over gap -4.12% / Under gap -0.59%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -105
Over gap -5.58% / Under gap -0.59%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -0.63% / Under gap -6.82%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -114 / U -112
Over gap -3.90% / Under gap -2.20%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -9.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -10.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.0% | U 78.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.5
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs CLE | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.94
Strongest Gap Under +1.84%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -9.13% / Under gap +1.84%
Under +1.84%
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -8.55% / Under gap +1.44%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -8.55% / Under gap +1.44%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -147 / U +115
Over gap -6.82% / Under gap +0.80%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +0.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -1.58% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U --
Over gap -5.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -10.75% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -12.57% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.0
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs KC | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Under +1.51%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -8.62% / Under gap +1.51%
Under +1.51%
FanDuel
6.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap -0.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +138 / U -170
Over gap -1.86% / Under gap -3.12%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +138 / U -170
Over gap -1.86% / Under gap -3.12%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap -2.05% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +130 / U -167
Over gap -3.32% / Under gap -2.71%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap -6.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -186 / U --
Over gap -7.45% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.2% | U 59.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.6
Ben Brown headshot

Ben Brown
CHC vs STL | 9 books
No Play
Adj K 4.91
Strongest Gap No Play +1.36%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +1.36% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -143 / U +113
Over gap -6.63% / Under gap +0.83%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -0.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -5.41% / Under gap -1.72%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -5.41% / Under gap -1.72%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -2.45% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -3.34% / Under gap -3.44%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -6.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -8.76% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.1% | U 84.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.4
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.95
Strongest Gap No Play +0.56%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap +0.56% / Under gap -6.59%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -0.13% / Under gap -6.80%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -105
Over gap -1.24% / Under gap -3.47%
No Play
Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.9
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs NYY | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap No Play +0.27%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -5.32% / Under gap +0.27%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -150 / U +117
Over gap -5.32% / Under gap -0.76%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -5.32% / Under gap -2.30%
No Play
Model O 54.7% | U 45.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.