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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-26 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-26
72 matched props 18 unmatched
Newer: 2026-05-28 Older: 2026-05-25

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 72
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 1
Unmatched Inputs 18
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-26 | Raw sportsbook rows: 72 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-26/strikeout_edges_2026-05-26.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs CLE | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 3.38
Strongest Gap Under +27.94%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -144 / U +118
Over gap -32.83% / Under gap +27.94%
Under +27.94%
FanDuel
7.5
O +710 / U --
Over gap -8.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -16.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -24.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -29.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -355 / U --
Over gap -35.11% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.2% | U 73.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.4
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs MIL | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 3.09
Strongest Gap Under +13.43%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -124 / U +102
Over gap -18.29% / Under gap +13.43%
Under +13.43%
FanDuel
5.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -7.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +198 / U --
Over gap -12.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -19.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.1% | U 62.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.1
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs STL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.18
Strongest Gap Under +13.02%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap -17.91% / Under gap +13.02%
Under +13.02%
FanDuel
8.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -7.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -11.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -19.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -172 / U --
Over gap -22.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -385 / U --
Over gap -23.06% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.0% | U 72.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.3
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs MIN | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.39
Strongest Gap Under +11.61%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -152 / U +124
Over gap -16.57% / Under gap +11.61%
Under +11.61%
FanDuel
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -2.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap -6.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +146 / U --
Over gap -11.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1250 / U --
Over gap -14.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -375 / U --
Over gap -17.97% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.8% | U 56.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.3
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs TOR | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.76
Strongest Gap Over +9.04%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +650 / U --
Over gap +9.04% / Under gap --
Over +9.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap +8.97% / Under gap --
Over +8.97%
FanDuel
4.5
O +130 / U -160
Over gap +6.37% / Under gap -11.39%
Over +6.37%
FanDuel
3.5
O -184 / U --
Over gap +1.68% / Under gap --
Over +1.68%
FanDuel
2.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -1.61% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.4% | U 77.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.5
Spencer Strider headshot

Spencer Strider
ATL vs BOS | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.50
Strongest Gap Under +8.97%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap -13.95% / Under gap +8.97%
Under +8.97%
FanDuel
8.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -3.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -9.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1300 / U --
Over gap -17.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -178 / U --
Over gap -18.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -19.90% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.4% | U 67.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.3
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs ATL | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.83
Strongest Gap Over +5.75%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +5.75% / Under gap --
Over +5.75%
FanDuel
5.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap +3.43% / Under gap --
Over +3.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O -106 / U -114
Over gap -0.49% / Under gap -4.24%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -4.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -5.86% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.3% | U 76.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.0
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs LAA | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 3.84
Strongest Gap Under +5.45%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +124 / U -152
Over gap -10.41% / Under gap +5.45%
Under +5.45%
FanDuel
6.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -5.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +245 / U --
Over gap -8.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -14.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -196 / U --
Over gap -14.56% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.2% | U 65.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.8
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs TB | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.16
Strongest Gap Over +5.34%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +710 / U --
Over gap +5.34% / Under gap --
Over +5.34%
FanDuel
6.5
O +330 / U --
Over gap +4.43% / Under gap --
Over +4.43%
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +1.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -142 / U +116
Over gap -2.66% / Under gap -2.32%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -325 / U --
Over gap -4.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -7.11% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.7% | U 82.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.0
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs WSH | 6 books
Play
Adj K 5.22
Strongest Gap Over +4.65%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +4.65% / Under gap --
Over +4.65%
FanDuel
6.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap +2.87% / Under gap --
Over +2.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O -162 / U +132
Over gap -4.92% / Under gap -0.01%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +140 / U --
Over gap -0.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -7.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -7.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.4% | U 81.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.2
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs KC | 6 books
Lean
Adj K 5.75
Strongest Gap Over +2.72%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +2.72% / Under gap --
Over +2.72%
FanDuel
5.5
O -122 / U +100
Over gap -5.51% / Under gap +0.56%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -0.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -8.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -8.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -10.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.5% | U 75.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.8
Jack Kochanowicz headshot

Jack Kochanowicz
LAA vs DET | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 3.84
Strongest Gap Under +2.04%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -142 / U +116
Over gap -7.02% / Under gap +2.04%
Under +2.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -1.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -5.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -10.16% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 51.7% | U 48.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.3
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs CWS | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 5.95
Strongest Gap Over +1.66%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +1.66% / Under gap --
Over +1.66%
FanDuel
7.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap -0.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +140 / U -172
Over gap -3.12% / Under gap -1.79%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -7.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -168 / U --
Over gap -10.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -11.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -375 / U --
Over gap -12.27% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.8% | U 82.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.