Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-23 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-23

12 matched props 2 unmatched

Newer: 2026-05-24 Older: 2026-05-21

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 12

Grouped Pitchers 12

Books 1

Unmatched Inputs 2

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-23 | Raw sportsbook rows: 12 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-23/strikeout_edges_2026-05-23.json

Max Meyer

MIA vs NYM | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.91

Strongest Gap Under +17.21%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -144 / U +118

Over gap -22.10% / Under gap +17.21%

Under +17.21%

Model O 36.9% | U 63.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.9

Drew Rasmussen

TB vs NYY | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.20

Strongest Gap Under +14.95%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +118 / U -144

Over gap -19.84% / Under gap +14.95%

Under +14.95%

Model O 26.0% | U 74.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.4

Paul Skenes

PIT vs TOR | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 5.78

Strongest Gap Under +10.30%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -105 / U -115

Over gap -15.01% / Under gap +10.30%

Under +10.30%

Model O 36.2% | U 63.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.6

Ryan Weathers

NYY vs TB | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.85

Strongest Gap Under +9.46%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -102 / U -120

Over gap -14.51% / Under gap +9.46%

Under +9.46%

Model O 36.0% | U 64.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.7

Slade Cecconi

CLE vs PHI | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.04

Strongest Gap Under +5.01%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +110 / U -134

Over gap -9.89% / Under gap +5.01%

Under +5.01%

Model O 37.7% | U 62.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.9

Erick Fedde

CWS vs SF | 1 books

Play

Adj K 3.59

Strongest Gap Over +3.14%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +128 / U -158

Over gap +3.14% / Under gap -8.24%

Over +3.14%

Model O 47.0% | U 53.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.9

Adrian Houser

SF vs CWS | 1 books

Lean

Adj K 3.95

Strongest Gap Under +2.89%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -160 / U +130

Over gap -7.91% / Under gap +2.89%

Under +2.89%

Model O 53.6% | U 46.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.6

Zack Wheeler

PHI vs CLE | 1 books

Lean

Adj K 6.90

Strongest Gap Over +2.42%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -162 / U +132

Over gap +2.42% / Under gap -7.35%

Over +2.42%

Model O 64.2% | U 35.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 82.0

Patrick Corbin

TOR vs PIT | 1 books

Lean

Adj K 4.45

Strongest Gap Under +1.97%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -106 / U -114

Over gap -6.70% / Under gap +1.97%

Under +1.97%

Model O 44.8% | U 55.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.2

Freddy Peralta

NYM vs MIA | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 5.85

Strongest Gap No Play +0.85%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +100 / U -122

Over gap +0.85% / Under gap -5.80%

No Play

Model O 50.8% | U 49.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.8

George Kirby

SEA vs KC | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 5.23

Strongest Gap No Play -1.30%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +132 / U -162

Over gap -1.30% / Under gap -3.63%

No Play

Model O 41.8% | U 58.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.4

Stephen Kolek

KC vs SEA | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.25

Strongest Gap No Play -1.37%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +134 / U -164

Over gap -1.37% / Under gap -3.49%

No Play

Model O 41.4% | U 58.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.