Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-25 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-25

74 matched props 22 unmatched

Newer: 2026-05-26 Older: 2026-05-24

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 74

Grouped Pitchers 20

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 22

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-25 | Raw sportsbook rows: 74 | Grouped pitcher entries: 20 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-25/strikeout_edges_2026-05-25.json

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL vs STL | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 6.19

Strongest Gap Under +23.65%

Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

7.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -30.94% / Under gap +23.65%

Under +23.65%

DraftKings

8.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap -27.39% / Under gap +21.44%

Under +21.44%

FanDuel

8.5

O +120 / U -148

Over gap -25.22% / Under gap +20.09%

Under +20.09%

FanDuel

8.5

O +120 / U -148

Over gap -25.22% / Under gap +20.09%

Under +20.09%

Model O 29.8% | U 70.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 74.7

Matthew Liberatore

STL vs MIL | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 3.52

Strongest Gap Under +12.87%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +110 / U -141

Over gap -19.00% / Under gap +12.87%

Under +12.87%

FanDuel

4.5

O +114 / U -152

Over gap -18.11% / Under gap +11.06%

Under +11.06%

FanDuel

4.5

O +114 / U -152

Over gap -18.11% / Under gap +11.06%

Under +11.06%

BetMGM

4.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -16.83% / Under gap +9.84%

Under +9.84%

Model O 28.6% | U 71.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 28.9

Carmen Mlodzinski

PIT vs CHC | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 3.43

Strongest Gap Under +12.63%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +124 / U -152

Over gap -17.59% / Under gap +12.63%

Under +12.63%

FanDuel

4.5

O +124 / U -152

Over gap -17.59% / Under gap +12.63%

Under +12.63%

DraftKings

4.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap -18.00% / Under gap +12.01%

Under +12.01%

BetMGM

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -16.10% / Under gap +8.48%

Under +8.48%

Model O 27.1% | U 73.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 17.8

Emmet Sheehan

LAD vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.53

Strongest Gap Under +12.29%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O +100 / U -122

Over gap -17.24% / Under gap +12.29%

Under +12.29%

BetMGM

6.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -17.24% / Under gap +9.79%

Under +9.79%

DraftKings

6.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap -14.41% / Under gap +8.56%

Under +8.56%

Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 75.6

Luis Castillo

SEA vs ATH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.17

Strongest Gap Over +11.81%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap +11.81% / Under gap -19.43%

Over +11.81%

FanDuel

3.5

O -168 / U +126

Over gap +9.12% / Under gap -16.06%

Over +9.12%

DraftKings

3.5

O -171 / U +134

Over gap +8.71% / Under gap -14.55%

Over +8.71%

Model O 71.8% | U 28.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.8

Landen Roupp

SF vs AZ | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 4.29

Strongest Gap Under +11.07%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +130 / U -160

Over gap -16.09% / Under gap +11.07%

Under +11.07%

FanDuel

5.5

O +130 / U -160

Over gap -16.09% / Under gap +11.07%

Under +11.07%

DraftKings

5.5

O +125 / U -160

Over gap -17.05% / Under gap +11.07%

Under +11.07%

BetMGM

5.5

O +125 / U -165

Over gap -17.05% / Under gap +10.35%

Under +10.35%

Model O 27.4% | U 72.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.8

Will Warren

NYY vs KC | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 4.63

Strongest Gap Under +8.39%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -164 / U +128

Over gap -14.37% / Under gap +8.39%

Under +8.39%

BetMGM

4.5

O -165 / U +125

Over gap -14.51% / Under gap +7.81%

Under +7.81%

FanDuel

5.5

O +124 / U -166

Over gap -12.04% / Under gap +4.99%

Under +4.99%

FanDuel

5.5

O +124 / U -166

Over gap -12.04% / Under gap +4.99%

Under +4.99%

Model O 47.8% | U 52.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 36.8

Zebby Matthews

MIN vs CWS | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 4.73

Strongest Gap Under +7.53%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -14.64% / Under gap +7.53%

Under +7.53%

DraftKings

5.5

O +110 / U -141

Over gap -13.48% / Under gap +7.35%

Under +7.35%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -154

Over gap -12.16% / Under gap +5.23%

Under +5.23%

FanDuel

5.5

O +118 / U -158

Over gap -11.73% / Under gap +4.62%

Under +4.62%

Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 61.0

Janson Junk

MIA vs TOR | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 3.34

Strongest Gap Under +6.42%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -125 / U -106

Over gap -13.44% / Under gap +6.42%

Under +6.42%

FanDuel

3.5

O -125 / U -106

Over gap -13.44% / Under gap +6.42%

Under +6.42%

BetMGM

3.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -12.43% / Under gap +5.50%

Under +5.50%

DraftKings

3.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap -11.37% / Under gap +5.27%

Under +5.27%

Model O 42.1% | U 57.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.1

Kumar Rocker

TEX vs HOU | 4 books

Strong

Adj K 4.24

Strongest Gap Under +5.31%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -12.29% / Under gap +5.31%

Under +5.31%

DraftKings

4.5

O -107 / U -119

Over gap -10.49% / Under gap +4.46%

Under +4.46%

FanDuel

4.5

O +110 / U -134

Over gap -6.42% / Under gap +1.54%

Under +1.54%

FanDuel

4.5

O +110 / U -134

Over gap -6.42% / Under gap +1.54%

Under +1.54%

Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.6

Tanner Gordon

COL vs LAD | 3 books

Play

Adj K 3.55

Strongest Gap Under +3.77%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -129 / U +100

Over gap -10.10% / Under gap +3.77%

Under +3.77%

BetMGM

3.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -11.22% / Under gap +3.77%

Under +3.77%

FanDuel

3.5

O -112 / U -118

Over gap -6.60% / Under gap -0.36%

No Play

Model O 46.2% | U 53.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.9

Aaron Civale

ATH vs SEA | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.56

Strongest Gap Over +3.58%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -150 / U +122

Over gap +3.58% / Under gap -8.63%

Over +3.58%

BetMGM

3.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap +2.04% / Under gap -9.03%

Over +2.04%

DraftKings

4.5

O +124 / U -158

Over gap +1.96% / Under gap -7.84%

Over +1.96%

Model O 63.6% | U 36.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.0

Jesús Luzardo

PHI vs SD | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.93

Strongest Gap Under +3.56%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +109 / U -139

Over gap -9.57% / Under gap +3.56%

Under +3.56%

FanDuel

6.5

O +106 / U -140

Over gap -10.26% / Under gap +3.39%

Under +3.39%

BetMGM

6.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -10.50% / Under gap +3.39%

Under +3.39%

Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.0

Ben Brown

CHC vs PIT | 4 books

Lean

Adj K 5.06

Strongest Gap Under +2.98%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +107 / U -137

Over gap -9.10% / Under gap +2.98%

Under +2.98%

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -9.57% / Under gap +2.46%

Under +2.46%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -154

Over gap -7.09% / Under gap +0.16%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -154

Over gap -7.09% / Under gap +0.16%

No Play

Model O 39.2% | U 60.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 57.0

Kyle Bradish

BAL vs TB | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 5.76

Strongest Gap No Play +0.67%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -128 / U +101

Over gap -6.56% / Under gap +0.67%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -108 / U -112

Over gap -2.34% / Under gap -2.41%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -108 / U -112

Over gap -2.34% / Under gap -2.41%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -110 / U -118

Over gap -2.80% / Under gap -3.71%

No Play

Model O 49.6% | U 50.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 65.7

Tanner Bibee

CLE vs WSH | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 5.20

Strongest Gap No Play +0.33%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -7.44% / Under gap +0.33%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -142

Over gap -4.96% / Under gap -0.02%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -142

Over gap -4.96% / Under gap -0.02%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +114 / U -145

Over gap -5.39% / Under gap -0.52%

No Play

Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.5

Randy Vásquez

SD vs PHI | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.61

Strongest Gap No Play +0.24%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -118 / U -110

Over gap -6.75% / Under gap +0.24%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -102 / U -120

Over gap -3.12% / Under gap -1.93%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -104 / U -123

Over gap -3.60% / Under gap -2.54%

No Play

Model O 47.4% | U 52.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 16.8

Merrill Kelly

AZ vs SF | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 4.63

Strongest Gap No Play -1.02%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -114 / U -114

Over gap -5.52% / Under gap -1.02%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -114 / U -114

Over gap -5.52% / Under gap -1.02%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -4.86% / Under gap -1.24%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap -4.63% / Under gap -2.30%

No Play

Model O 47.8% | U 52.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.8

Nick Lodolo

CIN vs NYM | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 5.05

Strongest Gap No Play -1.10%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -152 / U +114

Over gap -5.95% / Under gap -1.10%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -152 / U +114

Over gap -5.95% / Under gap -1.10%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -144 / U +113

Over gap -4.65% / Under gap -1.32%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +125 / U -165

Over gap -5.38% / Under gap -1.32%

No Play

Model O 54.4% | U 45.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.3

Michael Wacha

KC vs NYY | 4 books

No Play

Adj K 5.12

Strongest Gap No Play -1.83%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -134 / U +110

Over gap -1.83% / Under gap -3.05%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -134 / U +110

Over gap -1.83% / Under gap -3.05%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -141 / U +110

Over gap -3.08% / Under gap -3.05%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -4.57% / Under gap -3.05%

No Play

Model O 55.4% | U 44.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 37.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.