Mithrandir Metrics
CIN National League Central Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League Central

Cincinnati Reds

78.5-83.5 with P10-P90 wins 69-88. 80.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
78.5-83.5
Live pace
74.9
Delta
-3.6
Record 74-86 Run diff -160 Generated 2026-09-26T11:49:00.008592+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason78.0
Current pace74.9
Rolling p5075.8
Observed weight73%
Rolling wins
67.2 71.3 75.8 80.2 84.3
MOVE -2.2 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.38
October path

Projection odds

Division12.5%
Playoffs24.0%
Pennant2.0%
World Series0.8%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.258
Rotation FIP4.29
Bullpen FIP4.38
Run diff-29.3
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-09-26; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-09-25.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CTrevino, Jose384-1.42
1BStewart, Sal2331.04
2BBrito, Juan205-0.38
SSCabrera, Oswaldo310-0.34
3BSuárez, Eugenio6333.83
LFBleday, Jj447-0.59
CFJorge, Carlos----
RFRodríguez, Héctor202-0.12
DHCruz, Elly De La6365.13
Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Steer, SpencerHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Toglia, MichaelHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Dunn, BlakeHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Greene, HunterPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Burns, ChasePitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
Santillan, TonyPitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
Marte, NoelviHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Arroyo, EdwinHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Johnson, IvanHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Balcazar, LeoHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Aguiar, JulianPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Petty, ChasePitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Solesky, ChasePitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Maxwell, ZachPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors