Mithrandir Metrics
CIN National League Central Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League Central

Cincinnati Reds

78.5-83.5 with P10-P90 wins 69-88. 80.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
78.5-83.5
Live pace
73.3
Delta
-5.2
Record 43-52 Run diff -60 Generated 2026-07-16T11:44:44.237747+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason78.0
Current pace73.3
Rolling p5075.1
Observed weight61%
Rolling wins
65.6 70.1 75.1 80.1 84.7
MOVE -2.9 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.38
October path

Projection odds

Division12.5%
Playoffs24.0%
Pennant2.0%
World Series0.8%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.258
Rotation FIP4.29
Bullpen FIP4.38
Run diff-29.3
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CStephenson, Tyler4290.14
1BSteer, Spencer5581.20
2BNone204-0.47
SSDe La Cruz, Elly6365.13
3BHayes, Ke'Bryan538-0.28
LFBleday, Jj447-0.59
CFFriedl, Tj592-0.78
RFMarte, Noelvi407-0.15
DHSuárez, Eugenio6333.83