Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Stephenson, Tyler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
76
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.316 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.302
0.316
0.331
0.343
wOBA
0.307
0.324
0.343
0.363
0.380
ISO
0.106
0.121
0.137
0.153
0.168
K%
24.5%
25.9%
27.4%
28.9%
30.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
72
Exit velocity90.8
84
Hard-hit%46.5%
81
xBA0.341
70
xSLG0.599
77
xwOBA0.331
73
+20 vs proj
BB%10.4%
72
+20 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
43
K%25.9%
32
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.6 · C
100
Catcher Throwing-0.8 · C
31
Framing Runs-10.0 · C
1
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · C
40
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3% · rebadged research
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions74.1% · rebadged research
96
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.441 · validated
0
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
126 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| Sample | 278 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 429 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.310 | 0.272 to 0.355 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.153 | 0.099 to 0.222 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 3.5% to 8.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.4% | 38.9% to 52.1% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 29.3% | 23.2% to 33.2% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 7.0% to 11.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.272 to 0.364 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
607 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |
vs RHP
1506 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 24.6% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |