Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Stephenson, Tyler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.332 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.313 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.283
0.297
0.313
0.329
0.343
wOBA
0.295
0.316
0.339
0.363
0.384
ISO
0.106
0.123
0.142
0.161
0.179
K%
25.4%
27.0%
28.8%
30.5%
32.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.9%
79
+34 vs proj
Barrel%7.6%
79
+18 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
40
Exit velocity91.0
84
Hard-hit%46.2%
77
K%28.1%
20
xBA0.327
55
xSLG0.626
80
xwOBA0.332
69
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.3 · C
100
Catcher Throwing1.5 · C
83
Framing Runs-4.3 · C
5
Pop Time2.0 · C
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.7 · C
33
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.5% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions74.4% · rebadged research
96
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.251 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.418 · validated
1
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
102 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.030 |
| Sample | 185 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 429 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.310 | 0.272 to 0.355 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.153 | 0.099 to 0.222 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 3.5% to 8.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.4% | 38.9% to 52.1% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 29.3% | 23.2% to 33.2% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 7.0% to 11.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.272 to 0.364 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
607 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |
vs RHP
1506 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 24.6% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |