Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
McLain, Matt
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
59
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 60% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.304
0.318
0.333
0.345
wOBA
0.293
0.308
0.326
0.343
0.359
ISO
0.135
0.148
0.162
0.176
0.189
K%
23.7%
25.0%
26.5%
27.9%
29.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
67
Exit velocity87.8
46
Hard-hit%39.7%
52
xBA0.329
59
xSLG0.562
68
xwOBA0.317
61
BB%11.2%
79
+31 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
K%26.1%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
16
Arm Strength89.6 · 2B
74
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
89
Range Runs1.9 · 2B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 2B
16
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
57
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
84
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
65
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
72
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
69
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
43
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 329 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 503 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.265 to 0.358 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.159 | 0.111 to 0.222 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 5.8% | 3.4% to 8.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.3% | 36.6% to 48.9% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 25.7% | 23.7% to 34.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 6.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.289 to 0.369 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
246 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 20.7% |
| BB% | 8.3% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
782 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.229 |
| K% | 23.0% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |