Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Antone, Tejay

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
7.5% to 24.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
74
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
68
Arsenal6 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.17
ERA rolling p503.54
Observed weight51%
ERA
1.40 2.41 3.54 4.67 5.68
FIP
2.04 2.91 3.87 4.83 5.70
K%
17.3% 19.4% 21.8% 24.1% 26.2%
BB%
5.5% 6.6% 7.8% 9.0% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
80
ERA3.17
79
BB%7.2%
74 +42 vs proj
K%24.0%
66 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.297
72
Barrel allowed7.7%
45
Fastball velo94.1
46
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%25.8%
73 +28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Slider Stuff+106
82
Curveball Stuff+101
28
Cutter Stuff+104
73
Fastball Stuff+105
70
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+100
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Antone, Tejay · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.297 2026-09-13: 0.2962026-09-14: 0.2962026-09-18: 0.2992026-09-19: 0.3022026-09-20: 0.3022026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3012026-09-24: 0.3012026-09-25: 0.3012026-09-26: 0.3012026-09-27: 0.297 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Antone, Tejay · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Antone, Tejay · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 51.1%Cutter: 18.4%Curveball: 11.7%Sinker: 11.4%4-Seam Fastball: 5.9%Slider: 1.3% ST51% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 51%FC 18%CU 12%SI 11%FF 6%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Antone, Tejay · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sweeper: 51% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.8 mphST84 mphCutter: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.3 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.7 mphCU82 mphSinker: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphSlider: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 67″ drop, 70.9 mphCS71 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.1 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 52.8% 236 106 qualified
FC 17.9% 80 104 limited sample
CB 12.8% 57 101 limited sample
SI 11.4% 51 100 limited sample
FB 5.1% 23 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.83
K% Δ+0.036
Sample57.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.4----
Batters Faced131----
K%20.4%7.5% to 24.1%+/- 8.3%
BB%10.4%3.8% to 12.2%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%22.0%9.1% to 26.2%+/- 8.6%
HR/91.490.00 to 1.49+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3040.077 to 0.346+/- 0.134
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 10.2%+/- 5.0%
ERA5.000.00 to 6.06+/- 3.03
FIP4.791.45 to 6.62+/- 2.59
WHIP1.3820.482 to 1.849+/- 0.683
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

170 career BF

xwOBA0.132
K%11.4%
BB%6.6%
Barrel1.2%
vs RHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.126
K%11.5%
BB%5.0%
Barrel1.2%