Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Hayes, Ke'Bryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.312 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.294
0.308
0.322
0.335
wOBA
0.219
0.241
0.266
0.291
0.313
ISO
0.092
0.108
0.127
0.146
0.162
K%
15.4%
16.8%
18.2%
19.7%
21.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.2%
41
+21 vs proj
Barrel%6.2%
65
+19 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
32
Exit velocity90.7
81
Hard-hit%43.4%
65
K%15.8%
84
+21 vs proj
xBA0.314
39
xSLG0.496
45
xwOBA0.312
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength79.4 · 3B
10
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs0.2 · 3B
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · 3B
42
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.8% · rebadged research
7
Correct Decisions62.9% · rebadged research
20
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.242 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
78
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317 · validated
88
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
111 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.038 |
| Sample | 146 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 538 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.277 to 0.340 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.132 | 0.093 to 0.205 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 4.8% | 2.6% to 7.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.4% | 41.3% to 50.8% | +/- 4.8% |
| K% | 19.7% | 16.8% to 24.5% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.0% to 8.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.264 to 0.343 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
733 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 15.1% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
vs RHP
1937 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |