Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Bleday, Jj
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.409 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.346 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.313
0.329
0.346
0.364
0.379
wOBA
0.443
0.469
0.497
0.526
0.551
ISO
0.197
0.222
0.249
0.276
0.301
K%
17.8%
19.4%
21.1%
22.8%
24.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.6%
90
+22 vs proj
Barrel%10.7%
95
+46 vs proj
Bat speed71.3
74
Exit velocity91.7
89
Hard-hit%52.1%
94
+54 vs proj
K%18.6%
70
+35 vs proj
xBA0.368
85
xSLG0.711
92
xwOBA0.409
98
+61 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
43
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
92
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Range Runs-1.2 · LF
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · LF
63
Sprint Speed27.3 · LF
50
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.4% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions71.7% · rebadged research
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366 · validated
12
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
88 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.112 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.201 |
| Sample | 140 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 447 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.297 | 0.281 to 0.365 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.105 to 0.261 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 5.1% | 3.4% to 7.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 31.8% to 45.5% | +/- 6.9% |
| K% | 24.6% | 19.5% to 28.7% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 7.9% to 14.3% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.263 | 0.229 to 0.315 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
328 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1270 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 9.7% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |