Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Abbott, Andrew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
18.4% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace4.11
ERA rolling p504.02
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.11 3.54 4.02 4.50 4.94
FIP
4.16 4.49 4.86 5.23 5.56
K%
17.4% 18.4% 19.4% 20.5% 21.5%
BB%
7.9% 8.5% 9.2% 9.9% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
18
ERA4.11
47
BB%10.5%
30 -43 vs proj
K%18.5%
23
xwOBA allowed0.336
29 -16 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.0%
44
Fastball velo92.6
23
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
35
Whiff%21.4%
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+95
14
Fastball Stuff+103
52
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+108
88
Curveball Stuff+102
59
Cutter Stuff+104
72
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abbott, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.336 2026-07-06: 0.3392026-07-07: 0.3392026-07-08: 0.3392026-07-09: 0.3372026-07-10: 0.3372026-07-11: 0.3372026-07-12: 0.3372026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3362026-07-15: 0.3362026-07-16: 0.3352026-07-17: 0.336 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abbott, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abbott, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.7%Sweeper: 20.4%Changeup: 17.9%Curveball: 13.2%Cutter: 1.8% FF47% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 47%ST 20%CH 18%CU 13%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abbott, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.6 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.7 mphCU80 mphCutter: 2% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.5% 634 103 qualified
SL 20.8% 283 108 qualified
CH 18.4% 251 95 qualified
CB 13.4% 182 102 limited sample
FC 0.9% 12 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.265 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Changeup 20%, Sweeper 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.09
K% Δ-0.022
Sample109.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.5----
Batters Faced610----
K%20.8%18.4% to 27.0%+/- 4.3%
BB%7.2%5.6% to 9.7%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%21.9%18.6% to 26.2%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.621.02 to 2.12+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3180.283 to 0.337+/- 0.027
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.8% to 12.1%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.072.76 to 5.20+/- 1.22
FIP4.303.37 to 5.24+/- 0.93
WHIP1.3011.081 to 1.494+/- 0.206
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

401 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%21.8%
BB%6.1%
Barrel6.8%
vs RHH

1355 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%19.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel9.3%