Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Santillan, Tony

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
19.7% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.65
ERA current pace5.57
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight30%
ERA
2.46 3.30 4.23 5.17 6.01
FIP
3.54 4.07 4.65 5.24 5.76
K%
19.8% 22.3% 25.1% 27.9% 30.4%
BB%
6.9% 8.5% 10.4% 12.2% 13.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.4%
13 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.8%
3 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
50
Hard-hit allowed49.2%
5
K%24.8%
66
Whiff%17.6%
11 -56 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.370
9 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+96
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Santillan, Tony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.3782026-05-23: 0.3782026-05-24: 0.3762026-05-25: 0.3762026-05-26: 0.3762026-05-28: 0.3722026-05-29: 0.3712026-05-30: 0.3712026-05-31: 0.3712026-06-01: 0.370 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Santillan, Tony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santillan, Tony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.3%Slurve: 35.2%Slider: 1.5% MIX FF 63%SV 35%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santillan, Tony · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.4FFSV: HB -0.1, IVB 3.7SVSL: HB 0.9, IVB 3.1SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 64.1% 230 100 qualified
SL 35.9% 129 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 65%, Slurve 22%, Slider 13%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.59
K% Δ+0.007
Sample23.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.8----
Batters Faced157----
K%24.1%19.7% to 34.1%+/- 7.2%
BB%9.8%5.2% to 14.4%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%25.4%20.2% to 33.0%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.230.43 to 2.16+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3320.242 to 0.352+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed8.9%3.8% to 12.0%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.980.80 to 5.48+/- 2.34
FIP3.852.57 to 5.50+/- 1.47
WHIP1.3120.924 to 1.588+/- 0.332
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

384 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%23.9%
BB%10.0%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

426 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%24.8%
BB%8.2%
Barrel6.9%