Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Lowder, Rhett

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
12.9% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
24
Arsenal5 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.20
ERA current pace4.91
ERA rolling p504.19
Observed weight58%
ERA
2.57 3.34 4.19 5.05 5.82
FIP
2.66 3.44 4.31 5.18 5.97
K%
15.6% 17.2% 18.8% 20.5% 22.0%
BB%
7.7% 8.5% 9.5% 10.5% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
15
ERA4.91
27
BB%10.5%
29
K%18.6%
24 -22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.357
12 -32 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.0%
29 -44 vs proj
Fastball velo92.9
25
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
35
Whiff%19.1%
18 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Sinker Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+104
65
Changeup Stuff+106
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lowder, Rhett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.357 2026-07-06: 0.3572026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3572026-07-10: 0.3592026-07-11: 0.3592026-07-12: 0.3592026-07-13: 0.3592026-07-14: 0.3572026-07-15: 0.3572026-07-16: 0.3572026-07-17: 0.357 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lowder, Rhett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lowder, Rhett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.2%Slider: 27.1%4-Seam Fastball: 22.3%Changeup: 20.4% SI30% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 30%SL 27%FF 22%CH 20% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lowder, Rhett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphSlider: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.2% 273 105 qualified
SL 27.8% 251 104 qualified
FB 22.3% 201 98 qualified
CH 19.7% 178 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.81
K% Δ-0.032
Sample72.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.7----
Batters Faced295----
K%21.8%12.9% to 26.2%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.6%5.7% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%21.7%14.6% to 26.4%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.460.10 to 2.04+/- 0.97
xwOBA Against0.3200.245 to 0.365+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed6.2%0.9% to 8.5%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.100.58 to 5.12+/- 2.27
FIP4.212.18 to 6.80+/- 2.31
WHIP1.3851.028 to 1.754+/- 0.363
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

64 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%13.5%
BB%9.7%
Barrel2.3%
vs RHH

77 career BF

xwOBA0.221
K%14.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel2.0%