Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Steer, Spencer
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
76
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.311 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.346 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.333 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.308
0.320
0.333
0.346
0.358
wOBA
0.342
0.357
0.374
0.391
0.406
ISO
0.149
0.163
0.178
0.193
0.206
K%
19.8%
20.9%
22.1%
23.3%
24.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
85
+41 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
74
Hard-hit%43.1%
67
+23 vs proj
xBA0.339
67
xSLG0.621
82
xwOBA0.346
83
+24 vs proj
BB%9.3%
58
Bat speed69.5
48
K%22.0%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · 1B
4
Arm Strength91.3 · 1B
82
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
68
Range Runs-1.8 · 1B
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · 1B
89
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed28.5 · 1B
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.381 · insufficient sample
1
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
62
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
187 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.059 |
| Sample | 378 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 558 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.279 to 0.361 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.174 | 0.122 to 0.251 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 3.1% to 7.3% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.6% | 32.7% to 44.5% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.7% | 18.7% to 27.3% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 7.6% to 12.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.246 to 0.335 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
528 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.276 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1546 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |