Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Steer, Spencer
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.311 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.372 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.343 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.328
0.343
0.358
0.372
wOBA
0.353
0.372
0.394
0.415
0.434
ISO
0.137
0.154
0.172
0.190
0.207
K%
18.5%
19.8%
21.2%
22.6%
23.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.6%
45
-16 vs proj
Barrel%9.1%
89
+44 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
Exit velocity90.6
79
Hard-hit%43.3%
64
+24 vs proj
K%20.2%
60
xBA0.364
84
xSLG0.664
87
xwOBA0.372
89
+33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · LF
18
Arm Strength91.3 · LF
38
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Range Runs-0.2 · LF
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · LF
77
Sprint Speed28.4 · LF
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7% · rebadged research
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
19
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
34
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.384 · insufficient sample
0
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
79
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
165 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.057 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.079 |
| Sample | 243 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 558 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.279 to 0.361 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.174 | 0.122 to 0.251 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 3.1% to 7.3% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.6% | 32.7% to 44.5% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.7% | 18.7% to 27.3% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 7.6% to 12.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.246 to 0.335 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
528 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.276 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1546 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |