Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Spiers, Carson

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.3% K%
Range
14.8% to 26.6%
Live Δ
--
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
91
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal3 metrics
91
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.66
ERA current pace9.00
ERA rolling p504.95
Observed weight7%
ERA
3.21 4.03 4.95 5.86 6.69
FIP
3.58 4.31 5.12 5.94 6.67
K%
14.4% 17.0% 20.0% 22.9% 25.5%
BB%
4.5% 5.6% 6.9% 8.2% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Sinker Stuff+109
94
Slider Stuff+107
85
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2025Season 22%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Spiers, Carson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 61%61%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 65%65%Hard hit allowed: 58%58% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Spiers, Carson · 2025 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 22.0%Changeup: 21.5%Sinker: 20.3%4-Seam Fastball: 18.9%Cutter: 17.2% ST22% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 22%CH 21%SI 20%FF 19%FC 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Spiers, Carson · 2025 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.4 mphST81 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphSinker: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphCutter: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.0 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 43.5% 27 107 limited sample
SI 32.3% 20 109 limited sample
FB 12.9% 8 104 limited sample
CH 9.7% 6 100 limited sample
FC 1.6% 1 121 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.325 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 22%, Changeup 21%, Sinker 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.6----
Batters Faced283----
K%19.3%14.8% to 26.6%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.1%4.8% to 10.0%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%20.4%15.6% to 26.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.550.89 to 2.66+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3240.275 to 0.381+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed8.1%6.2% to 12.2%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.812.97 to 6.69+/- 1.86
FIP4.823.34 to 6.65+/- 1.65
WHIP1.3771.126 to 1.700+/- 0.287
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

289 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%15.9%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

277 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%18.8%
BB%5.6%
Barrel9.2%