Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Williamson, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
16.8% to 26.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status IL-60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace6.11
ERA rolling p504.90
Observed weight41%
ERA
3.74 4.29 4.90 5.51 6.05
FIP
3.89 4.31 4.78 5.26 5.68
K%
15.9% 17.4% 19.2% 21.0% 22.6%
BB%
7.8% 8.9% 10.1% 11.3% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%13.4%
8 -61 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.8%
37
Fastball velo92.9
26
Hard-hit allowed38.6%
53
K%15.2%
9 -28 vs proj
Whiff%20.5%
28 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.389
3 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+98
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williamson, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3902026-05-21: 0.3902026-05-23: 0.3902026-05-24: 0.3902026-05-25: 0.3902026-05-26: 0.3902026-05-28: 0.3902026-05-29: 0.3892026-05-30: 0.3892026-05-31: 0.3892026-06-01: 0.3892026-06-02: 0.389 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williamson, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williamson, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 27.1%Changeup: 23.2%4-Seam Fastball: 17.7%Sinker: 11.7%Sweeper: 11.0%Curveball: 9.3% MIX FC 27%CH 23%FF 18%SI 12%ST 11%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williamson, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot FC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.1FCCH: HB -1.3, IVB 2.6CHFF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.2FFSI: HB -0.4, IVB 1.5SIST: HB -0.5, IVB 3.3STCU: HB 0.8, IVB 5.0CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 26.4% 137 99 limited sample
CH 23.6% 122 103 limited sample
FB 20.5% 106 93 limited sample
SI 10.6% 55 97 limited sample
SL 9.8% 51 103 limited sample
CB 9.1% 47 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.75
K% Δ-0.055
Sample37.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.9----
Batters Faced294----
K%20.7%16.8% to 26.9%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.4%5.2% to 11.2%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%22.4%17.4% to 25.4%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.760.99 to 2.20+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3310.267 to 0.342+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.9% to 10.5%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.362.61 to 5.82+/- 1.61
FIP4.463.28 to 5.77+/- 1.25
WHIP1.3911.045 to 1.586+/- 0.271
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

123 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%19.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%18.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel6.9%