Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Petty, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
7.3% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 23 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason7.45
ERA current pace4.83
ERA rolling p506.49
Observed weight37%
ERA
3.67 5.01 6.49 7.98 9.32
FIP
3.30 3.88 4.52 5.17 5.75
K%
9.9% 13.0% 16.5% 19.9% 23.1%
BB%
6.2% 7.3% 8.6% 9.8% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
61
ERA4.83
30
BB%6.5%
85 +38 vs proj
K%10.8%
1 -49 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.361
9 -22 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
24 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo96.4
81
Hard-hit allowed38.2%
52
Whiff%18.7%
17 -42 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+102
53
Fastball Stuff+115
100
Mithrandir Stuff+105
81
Sinker Stuff+105
70
Slider Stuff+102
49
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Petty, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.361 2026-09-12: 0.3612026-09-13: 0.3612026-09-14: 0.3612026-09-18: 0.3612026-09-19: 0.3612026-09-20: 0.3612026-09-21: 0.3612026-09-22: 0.3612026-09-23: 0.3612026-09-24: 0.3612026-09-25: 0.3612026-09-26: 0.361 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Petty, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Petty, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 34.4%Changeup: 23.1%Sweeper: 18.2%4-Seam Fastball: 14.9%Slider: 9.4% SI34% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 34%CH 23%ST 18%FF 15%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Petty, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 34% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.2 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.3% 66 105 limited sample
SL 30.3% 66 102 limited sample
CH 24.3% 53 102 limited sample
FB 15.1% 33 115 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 31%, Sinker 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.13
K% Δ-0.114
Sample31.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.4----
Batters Faced331----
K%22.1%7.3% to 27.7%+/- 10.2%
BB%9.2%5.7% to 12.6%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%23.7%15.4% to 30.5%+/- 7.6%
HR/91.370.46 to 2.68+/- 1.11
xwOBA Against0.3290.185 to 0.350+/- 0.082
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.2% to 9.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA5.963.40 to 11.11+/- 3.86
FIP4.392.75 to 6.10+/- 1.67
WHIP1.4201.181 to 1.978+/- 0.399
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

13 career BF

xwOBA0.192
K%7.7%
BB%9.0%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

27 career BF

xwOBA0.192
K%7.9%
BB%7.3%
Barrel4.6%