Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Petty, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
7.3% to 27.7%
Live Δ
--
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 23 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason7.45
ERA current pace5.91
ERA rolling p507.20
Observed weight16%
ERA
3.90 5.46 7.20 8.94 10.51
FIP
2.82 3.50 4.26 5.01 5.69
K%
8.8% 12.8% 17.4% 21.9% 26.0%
BB%
6.3% 7.7% 9.3% 10.9% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Petty, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 14%14%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Petty, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.0%Changeup: 24.8%Slider: 19.0%Sweeper: 15.3%4-Seam Fastball: 13.9% MIX SI 27%CH 25%SL 19%ST 15%FF 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Petty, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.4, IVB 1.5SICH: HB -0.5, IVB 2.8CHSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5SLST: HB -0.4, IVB 2.9STFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.4FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.3% 47 109 limited sample
SI 27.0% 37 103 limited sample
CH 24.8% 34 108 limited sample
FB 13.9% 19 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 31%, Sinker 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.7----
Batters Faced327----
K%22.1%7.3% to 27.7%+/- 10.2%
BB%9.2%5.7% to 12.6%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%23.7%15.4% to 30.5%+/- 7.6%
HR/91.370.46 to 2.68+/- 1.11
xwOBA Against0.3290.185 to 0.350+/- 0.082
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.2% to 9.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA5.963.39 to 11.11+/- 3.86
FIP4.392.75 to 6.10+/- 1.67
WHIP1.4191.181 to 1.978+/- 0.399
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

13 career BF

xwOBA0.192
K%7.7%
BB%9.0%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

27 career BF

xwOBA0.192
K%7.9%
BB%7.3%
Barrel4.6%