Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Petty, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
7.3% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal5 metrics
80
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason7.45
ERA current pace4.38
ERA rolling p506.53
Observed weight30%
ERA
3.59 4.98 6.53 8.07 9.46
FIP
3.04 3.65 4.32 4.99 5.59
K%
9.8% 13.2% 17.0% 20.8% 24.3%
BB%
6.3% 7.5% 8.9% 10.2% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
83
ERA4.38
41
BB%6.8%
77 +35 vs proj
K%10.7%
0 -46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.345
20
Barrel allowed8.6%
36
Fastball velo96.7
83
Hard-hit allowed39.5%
47
Whiff%19.2%
19 -37 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+102
49
Fastball Stuff+116
100
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+106
80
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Petty, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.345 2026-07-05: 0.3582026-07-06: 0.3582026-07-07: 0.3582026-07-08: 0.3582026-07-09: 0.3582026-07-10: 0.3582026-07-11: 0.3582026-07-12: 0.3582026-07-13: 0.3582026-07-14: 0.3452026-07-15: 0.3452026-07-16: 0.345 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Petty, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Petty, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 33.1%Changeup: 22.6%Sweeper: 16.4%4-Seam Fastball: 16.1%Slider: 11.9% SI33% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 33%CH 23%ST 16%FF 16%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Petty, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 33% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.5 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.3 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.1 mphST83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mphSlider: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 31.1% 56 106 limited sample
SI 27.8% 50 106 limited sample
CH 26.1% 47 102 limited sample
FB 15.0% 27 116 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 31%, Sinker 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.58
K% Δ-0.115
Sample24.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.4----
Batters Faced326----
K%22.1%7.3% to 27.7%+/- 10.2%
BB%9.2%5.7% to 12.6%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%23.7%15.4% to 30.5%+/- 7.6%
HR/91.370.46 to 2.68+/- 1.11
xwOBA Against0.3290.185 to 0.350+/- 0.082
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.2% to 9.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA5.963.39 to 11.11+/- 3.86
FIP4.392.75 to 6.10+/- 1.67
WHIP1.4191.181 to 1.978+/- 0.399
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

13 career BF

xwOBA0.192
K%7.7%
BB%9.0%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

27 career BF

xwOBA0.192
K%7.9%
BB%7.3%
Barrel4.6%